The Saturday Shuffle

Greetings, Dear Readers! Only two more weeks until the first day of Spring! This particular post will be a grab bag of various topics--nothing really interesting or important to discuss this morning.

Tomorrow's Sunday School will be the same lesson planned last week. We want to do a review session for you. We will be winding down this blog very soon and we want to make sure that you are properly prepared in all of the tips and tricks for using the links at left to improvise your own weather prognostications. This blog will be going into hibernation on the Vernal Equinox--afterall, the blog is about WINTER--not SPRING!

While reviewing all of our links at left, I was intrigued by the massive area of warm surface temps in the midwest and east. Gee, wasn't it barely a week ago that they were shivering and getting pounded? Also, the QPF back there is pretty substantial. Things are pretty quiet on the Western Front. The far Pac NW is getting some action and perhaps the Idaho Panhandle, too. Otherwise, it's pretty bland.

The CPC people say that California will have above normal precip during the next 30 days. I'd reckon that's a reasonable guess judging from the persistent Pacific patterns prevailing out yonder.

Spaceweather is quite interesting today--check it out. There's an awesome photo of Saturn. Saturn is at perigee this weekend and also at opposition to the Sun. That's kind of a big deal in the astro circles. Actually, it might even be a big deal in the world financial circles, too, but that's another story beyond the scope of this blog. Whatever the case, be sure to check out the pretty pictures of Saturn on the Spaceweather website.

I roamed 'round the SNOTEL site looking at the percent-average of various California rivers. They sure look like they are in good shape, all things considered. Meanwhile, Arizona rivers and reservoirs are in REALLY good shape. Roosevelt Lake is 100% full and there's over 2000 cfs coming into the lake. That means it's spilling at least 2,000 cfs! Over in New Mexico most of the state is under a red flag warning. Oddly, the red flag warning ends at the Arizona line. I wonder how that works? Maybe the wind knows when it enters New Mexico that it's supposed to pick up the pace.

The Upper Snake River is in good shape and Jackson Lake should fill and spill this year. Tater Nation will be happy about that.

Well, that's about all there is to report weatherwise today. Tomorrow's discussion will be very generic in scope--just a review of how to use the tools we have assembled on this website. It's been a lot of fun writing this Winter 0809 blog. Maybe next year we will go it again. Who knows? Have a great day and GO PLAY!

Ah, HA! What were we saying?

Hey, Dear Readers, I have been taking a break from the Winter 0809 blog. Somehow, reality got real distorted over in California and I just decided to "chuck it" for a well-deserved break. It's Thursday night and so I decided to once again come back and "tune in" to my blog.
Lo and behold, I just found this snippet online:

"Heavy snowfall brought a dramatic increase to the Sierra snowpack, which has lagged significantly below average levels this season. As much snow as normally falls in the Tahoe-Truckee area during the entire month of March fell during its first three days, experts said.

On Wednesday, the Truckee River and Lake Tahoe Basin's snowpacks were measured at 87 percent of average for the date, up from 79 percent Tuesday morning and the lower 70s a week ago.

"I looked at those numbers two or three times this morning and just said, 'Wow,'" said Dan Greenlee, a hydrologist with the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service.

"It was a phenomenal storm," Greenlee said. "We still need some more, but it's definitely an improvement."

The storm dumped enough precipitation into Lake Tahoe in three days to raise its water level nearly 4 inches, increasing Tahoe's water storage by about 38,000 acre-feet, Greenlee said. That's more than 12 billion gallons."

Well, as you might expect, this type of stuff gets me pretty excited. I guess I was "right" afterall. Once that Muscle Bound Guy, Arni What's-His-Name, said they were in a statewide drought, well, I guess I kinda lost interest. Even though I knew it wasn't really "so," that type of political hype really just annoyed me enough to take a break from this weather blog. Afterall, I also write blogs about volunteers, food shopping and trading Zions Bank stock. I don't need to hang out here. So I took a break.

It's so nice to come back from my break and see that Lake Tahoe gained 12 billion gallons from the last storm. That really kind of validates things like the QPF graphics and the jetstream and the Navy water vapor maps and all of that other esoteric stuff we watch, doesn't it? Geeze!

Well, I am going to run along now--this was just a quick visit back to the Winter 0809 blog--we will add more insights tomorrow. In the meantime, I suggest readers of this blog enjoy a little moment of self-congratulations. We all saw this coming and we should be proud of ourselves. Thank you for your support.

Tuesday thoughts

Greetings, Dear Readers! I have posted the latest 5-day QPF forecast above. You can see that California once again is getting all the action. I clicked around through the NWS National Warning map graphic and I found this snippet: "THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 FEET TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 5500 FOOT ELEVATION." That's pretty cool language!

We've been having various varieties of rain in Idaho Falls today. It's been like a whole progression of all the types of rain. None of them have been hard rain--just different varieties. It's been fun. We've had rainbows, too. It was clear at lunch and Susun and I ate outside on the patio of a fancy restaurant. It felt hot. But then the weather changed later in the afternoon and it was too cold and windy to go feed the geese on the greenbelt near the Falls. Go figure!

By the way, if you haven't been over to Spaceweather.Com, you really ought to make a visit tonight. There's a Solar Prominence that's pretty dazzling right now. I won't bore you with the details. Just go visit Spaceweather's link in the left column and see for yourself. be sure to click through the various links--it's impressive!

The Snake River here went ice free at the Falls today. All the local tongues were wagging about it. People pay more attention sometimes that I tend to give them credit for. Now that I can see actual real open water I am trying to think of a way to pry our frozen canoe out of the glacier beside the garage and get it on the water. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

Well, there's lots of weather to enjoy, so ENJOY IT!

Gravity Wave? Who knew?

Perhaps you have been as intrigued as I have been by media coverage of The Big Winter Storm back east. As you might expect, I have been lapping up the various storm stories like a purring kitten in front of the warm bowl of milk.

This morning the headline in one of the stories immediately caught my bleary eyes: The Philadelphia Inquirer's headline blared: "Gravity Wave: powered late season snowstorm. Gravity Wave? Gee, I guess I have fallen behind in the Lingo Wars or somehow dropped off the Nomenclature Wagon or something. Gravity Waves? Huh?

Well, guess what? Gravity waves are totally real you can read all about them, too.First, click here for the Philly story. Naturally, I immediately went to Wikipedia in hopes that awesome online tome would have something about gravity waves.Sure enough, here is the Wiki entry on the phenomena.Once at Wiki you will find this really impressive piece of "math art" adorning the Wiki page. If this doesn't make you want to drink more coffee, I sure don't know what will! Who knew? (Click the graphic for a larger one.)

Quite the comparison!

I'm posting up the afternoon surface temp map. It's quite the comparison. If you look at the overnight temps below and then this map, you can clearly see the massive invasion of warm temps around a huge area of the Western United States! If this isn't the first harbinger of spring, I really don't know what is!

A rain event

Don't ya love those pretty colors? Well, they do tell a story. Take a Big Picture look at the advance of warmer temps coming in from west-to-east all up and down the Pacific Coastline. These are generally the overnight temps depicted here. Those warmer temps are progged to march right into Eastern Idaho today, tonight and tomorrow. Since they will be accompanied with ample moisture, we are looking at a rain event taking shape here.

So far, it doesn't appear to be enough rain to raise the flood flags, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how it shapes up and progresses through the region.
I'd suspect this event will put a serious dent in the low elevation snow and usher in the infamous "Mud Season" in one fell swoop. I put this surface temp graphic up here this morning because I think it's the key indicator for the next couple of days. Keep an eye on the progression and evolution of surface temps to get a good idea how the Intermountain West will be affected by the incoming Pacific precipitation.

East Coast water discussion

First, let's dispel some media myths that are running rampant tonight. New England is NOT going to get buried in snow! No, it's really not. Yes, it's going to have a nice storm. As you can see from the above graphic, some people in some places are going to get really stuccoed with more than a foot. But that's NOT all of New England. I've beenreading some pretty hysterical media reports tonight. You'd think the Statue of Liberty was going to get covered to her eyeballs! As usual, it's typical media hype going on here. Tomorrow, I am sure CNN will be filled with the obligatory blizzard scenes, people stuck in drifts higher than their house, all the usual suspects. But, honest, it's NOT all of New England, just a lucky few!OK, meanwhile, let's take a look at Polly Pacific. I drew a nice happy face on her earlier today. As you can see, there is an epic fetch and reach to the water vapor tracks right now. It almost looks as if a giant hand is dipping water from the Subtropical region and flinging it at North America. Couple this Subtropical tap with the typical Siberian water tap and you've really got a recipe for some storm action!

I went back and leafed through all of the archived Navy water vapor maps and it sure does look to me like what's hitting New England tonight had its pedigree in the deep tropics. I think it came up on what I've been calling "The Southern Track." If so, this particular storm promises to raise some eyebrows for its timing and intensity. This is March 1st, afterall!

If you spend some time comparing the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, East Pacific and Atlantic water vapor shots on the Navy website, I think that you will become at least as curious as I am about whazzup out there. Idaho seems to be perpetually on the outside looking in lately but some other parts of our landscape are getting stuccoed pretty good!

Once again, I hark back to that "crescendo theory." I keep getting the distinct feelings that this winter really, really wants to go out with guns firing full force in one giant blaze of epic glory! If this current storm is a precursor to that scenario, we could be in for some real memorable Legacy Storms!

And Along Came Polly Pacific

What can you say about people who play with their food....and weather, too? Maybe they have too much time on their hands? Well, whatever, I couldn't resist on this one. It was crying out for doodling. Photoshop it ain't. We are running late this Sunday morning so Sunday School is also off to a tardy start. Three demerits to the teacher--he's been playing with his food and weather again! (NEWS FLASH--Sunday School has been canceled! That's right, recess came early and now you can all GO PLAY!)