Avalanches are in the news on an almost daily basis. Snow slides are killing people this year and it doesn't seem to matter where they are. One 85-year-old woman near Spokane was killed when snow slid off her roof while she was shoveling snow on her front walk! People are even getting killed "in bounds" at major ski resorts. You have to read this New York Times article on the situation to really appreciate the depth and scope of the situation. Check this snippet: "Two patrollers witnessed the slide and located Mr. Nodine’s beacon within two minutes. They uncovered his head within another six. Patrollers quickly recovered him from a deep, concretelike tomb, but it was too late; he had suffocated."
January 9, 2009
Attention: AVALANCHE!
Avalanches are in the news on an almost daily basis. Snow slides are killing people this year and it doesn't seem to matter where they are. One 85-year-old woman near Spokane was killed when snow slid off her roof while she was shoveling snow on her front walk! People are even getting killed "in bounds" at major ski resorts. You have to read this New York Times article on the situation to really appreciate the depth and scope of the situation. Check this snippet: "Two patrollers witnessed the slide and located Mr. Nodine’s beacon within two minutes. They uncovered his head within another six. Patrollers quickly recovered him from a deep, concretelike tomb, but it was too late; he had suffocated."
January 8, 2009
Ah, High Pressure!
Well, I reckon that Snake Bite graphic I put up a few days ago worked out pretty good. There's a Mid Winter Break coming to your local neighborhood motion picture theater real soon. Check this babble from the Pocatello NWS AFD today. (Note: the spelling of the word "chance" is Pocatello's--NOT mine!)
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE PATTERN WE SAW EARLIER IN THE FALL WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES RETURNS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS LIES IN RELATION TO EASTERN IDAHO. MODELS KEEP THE AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BULK OF LONG TERM AND AS A RESULT...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
The farther south you get the more enthusiastic the NWS people are about this whole gig. It looks like the Real Deal, as they say. However, as we said in at least one of our previous posts, don't let your guard down--winter ain't gone. Nope, it'll be BAAAACK! And when it comes, it's coming with a real vengeance and an really BAD attitude. Enjoy this Mid-Winter Break--you deserve it!
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE PATTERN WE SAW EARLIER IN THE FALL WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES RETURNS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS LIES IN RELATION TO EASTERN IDAHO. MODELS KEEP THE AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BULK OF LONG TERM AND AS A RESULT...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
The farther south you get the more enthusiastic the NWS people are about this whole gig. It looks like the Real Deal, as they say. However, as we said in at least one of our previous posts, don't let your guard down--winter ain't gone. Nope, it'll be BAAAACK! And when it comes, it's coming with a real vengeance and an really BAD attitude. Enjoy this Mid-Winter Break--you deserve it!
Western Washington snowmelt increases
Yesterday things were bad but not so bad. Today things are bad and getting a lot worse. The Seattle NWS has posted a great synopsis of their situation there. It's 8 megs so don't try to download it unless you have a hot rod broadband connection. They have some VERY impressive slides of what is happening there. There are 22 rivers flooding and a few above all time high flows with a few more progged to set new records. The rainfall amounts and rainfall rates are pretty amazing. This is how a Wadzilla behaves when it comes in on a low level bombing run. It just flat carpet bombs a wide swath of landscape--in this case a heavily snow-covered and steep landscape. They are in a world of hurt up there right now and it's rapidly becoming the biggest story so far to come out of The Great Winter of 2008-2009. All we can do from our chair in this theater is sit back and watch in total awe. Good Luck, Western Washington State, our prayers are with you!
January 7, 2009
Even Alaskans say it's COOOOLD!
Well, blog fans, I was roaming El Net tonight and found a fun AP article out of Alaska. Check this snippet: "Johnson lives in Stevens Village, where residents have endured close to two weeks of temperatures pushing 60 below zero." The article goes on to talk about how the temps have been very low throughout Alaska for a very long period of time this year.
Hum....that sure sounds like what you would expect after all that volcanic ash spewed forth from the Aleutians this summer. Well, I guess the chickens are coming home to roost!
I really love this quote: "I've never seen it this cold for this long," he said. "I remember it 70 below one time, but not for a week and a half."
Even people in Anchorage are complaining. They are apparently accustomed to temps in the low single digits this time of year. However, it's been about -20 and they aren't happy. If the volcanic ash is the root cause of this cold regime, guess what? It's going to continue unabated well into spring time, perhaps even next summer.
Meanwhile, each kinky jetstream that dares dip down into the Lower 48 is going to bring abnormally cold air. When these jetstreams happen to collide with your basic Neighborhood Wadzilla coming across the Pacific, then the areas underneath such collisions are going to get some real epic snowfall and the inherent issues that come with such snowfall.
Even though it appears we are due for a mid-winter break since the jetstream is now zonal and a high pressure system is building over the Great Basin and Southwest, the winter is FAR from over. The abnormally cold air mass engulfing Alaska simply isn't going anywhere. It's up there to stay for weeks and most likely months. Why? Because that volcanic ash continues to circle the globe at the Arctic latitudes.
Meanwhile, the water vapor patterns will continue in much the same way as they have so far this winter. It's not a matter of "IF" the Lower 48 will get body slammed again--only a matter of "WHEN!"
Hum....that sure sounds like what you would expect after all that volcanic ash spewed forth from the Aleutians this summer. Well, I guess the chickens are coming home to roost!
I really love this quote: "I've never seen it this cold for this long," he said. "I remember it 70 below one time, but not for a week and a half."
Even people in Anchorage are complaining. They are apparently accustomed to temps in the low single digits this time of year. However, it's been about -20 and they aren't happy. If the volcanic ash is the root cause of this cold regime, guess what? It's going to continue unabated well into spring time, perhaps even next summer.
Meanwhile, each kinky jetstream that dares dip down into the Lower 48 is going to bring abnormally cold air. When these jetstreams happen to collide with your basic Neighborhood Wadzilla coming across the Pacific, then the areas underneath such collisions are going to get some real epic snowfall and the inherent issues that come with such snowfall.
Even though it appears we are due for a mid-winter break since the jetstream is now zonal and a high pressure system is building over the Great Basin and Southwest, the winter is FAR from over. The abnormally cold air mass engulfing Alaska simply isn't going anywhere. It's up there to stay for weeks and most likely months. Why? Because that volcanic ash continues to circle the globe at the Arctic latitudes.
Meanwhile, the water vapor patterns will continue in much the same way as they have so far this winter. It's not a matter of "IF" the Lower 48 will get body slammed again--only a matter of "WHEN!"
Rivers are up in Washington State
(See updated post above) Well, it's been raining over in Washington State. Actually, it's been some pretty heavy and protracted rain. Numerous rivers are at or near flood stage. However, none of them are remotely near their record high flows. Despite the media hysteria, it looks like a fairly normal runoff event. The snow melt is being contained by the stream channels in an orderly manner. I'd guess that during the "funny money" phase of ridiculous mortgages some people built high dollar houses in the flood fringe or even the flood plain. I would reckon these idiots are getting pounded right now. However, all the rest of civil society in Washington State is doing quite well, thank you!
You can watch all of the snow melt and streamflow mayhem, such as it is, unfold by keeping an eye on the USGS Real Time Streamflow numbers. The "GS," as they are called, maintains a real time data table for every state. It's quite an amazing feat. I highly recommend learning how to monitor streamflows in any given state in America.
Click on this sentence to go to the Washington State real time streamflow page. Surf around until you get the hang of it. Look for the little drop down menu window and choose "Peak Streamflow." This will help you understand just how tame today's flows are compared to the wildness of historical flows. Good luck!
You can watch all of the snow melt and streamflow mayhem, such as it is, unfold by keeping an eye on the USGS Real Time Streamflow numbers. The "GS," as they are called, maintains a real time data table for every state. It's quite an amazing feat. I highly recommend learning how to monitor streamflows in any given state in America.
Click on this sentence to go to the Washington State real time streamflow page. Surf around until you get the hang of it. Look for the little drop down menu window and choose "Peak Streamflow." This will help you understand just how tame today's flows are compared to the wildness of historical flows. Good luck!
January 5, 2009
Can you trust a snake?
Anybody who's been anywhere has had at least one encounter with a snake. Coulda been a rattler--coulda been any snake. But, if you're "Snake Savvy," you know what I mean. Can you trust a snake? Well, I reckon it all depends on your point of view. I trust any snake that's outside of my truck!
OK, here we go--check this out. In the photo above this narrative is the latest US Navy water vapor picture out in the Pacific. Sure looks weird to me, I have to admit.
They say--"they" being the weather wonks--that we might be getting a big ol' high pressure system coming to visit. What that means is a "mid-winter break." I kind of think they are right, especially when I'm looking at this snake out in the Pacific.
If the snake coil keeps coilin' and the snake puffs up some more, I'd reckon this here snake could settle over the whole entire Western You-nighted States. It's one big puppy, that's furr shure.
Well, meanwhile, we are getting some annoying skiff of snow here in Idaho Falls--nothing deep enough to do anything with but just deep enough to make idiot drivers make fools of themselves.
January 4, 2009
Ten Below here
The sub-zero cold snap predicted actually materialized and we're sitting Sunday morning in the deep freeze. Actually, ten below ain't bad. What few hardy souls are left in Stanley are really shivering at -28! Temps will probably rise somewhat in the next day or two. We're progged for some snow Monday. The far Pac NW coast is due to get hit hard once again. Check this snippet from the morning Seattle AFD:
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES DURING THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD DRIVE MANY AREA RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.
In reading the various AFD's and looking at global water vapor patterns and the jetstream, I think we're going to get a classic "mid-winter break" beginning sometime around 10JAN, perhaps as late as 12JAN. Even the Climate Prediction Center has both the 6-10 and 8-14 days maps looking good--above normal temps and below normal precip. It's about time!
The key to our winter snowpack will unfold in late January and February. Last year, the snow pretty much stopped in early February. This year, I have a hunch, we might see some additional snow in the mid to late February timeframe. Water supplies are looking pretty good right now but we need to finish the job.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES DURING THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD DRIVE MANY AREA RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.
In reading the various AFD's and looking at global water vapor patterns and the jetstream, I think we're going to get a classic "mid-winter break" beginning sometime around 10JAN, perhaps as late as 12JAN. Even the Climate Prediction Center has both the 6-10 and 8-14 days maps looking good--above normal temps and below normal precip. It's about time!
The key to our winter snowpack will unfold in late January and February. Last year, the snow pretty much stopped in early February. This year, I have a hunch, we might see some additional snow in the mid to late February timeframe. Water supplies are looking pretty good right now but we need to finish the job.
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