February 4, 2009

Looks promising


Click on the little graphic and you will see the weather wonks back in Camp Springs, Maryland, are predicting some pretty widespread moisture across the West during the next five days. This QPF graph has been on-again, off-again lately for California. It's on-again this morning. The Central Sierra is progged for over two inches of precip in the next five days. They sure need it!

The Pocatello NWS red eye shift had this to say in their 3 am Wednesday discussion:

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS CIRCULATION TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO BOTH DAYS. OVER ALL IT APPEARS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT STRONG DISTURBANCE CARRIED BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH ARRIVES. GFS BRINGS THAT DISTURBANCE THROUGH WITH BETTER THAN AN HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT MOISTURE IN SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT ONE THIRD THAT VALUE. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK A SINGLE 24 OR 36 HOUR PERIOD THAT WOULD REPRESENT A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM.

Meanwhile down in KREV (That's Reno NWS for you acronym-challenged readers)the storm looks a whole lot more productive:

A TOTAL OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10 KFT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FT IN THE CNTRL SIERRA.

As usual, it's going to be fun to watch it unfold!

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