Your checklist

Greetings, Dear Readers! This will be our last Sunday School. We are preparing to put this blog to sleep as winter is mostly over and Spring has already sprung in some parts of America. We will have a few more posts but not very many and not very frequently. So, it's going to be up to you, yourselves and you to carry on whatever you may wish from this blog. Yes, we will leave it up and running. That means you can come back any time and use the convenient links at left. This morning, I arranged them in my personal order of priority. That's what we will be talking about today in Sunday School.

Most of you have been flying in a small private airplane. As you know, the pilot goes through a rigorous checklist before taking off. For pilots, this checklist becomes a way of life, a cultural practice and, quite literally, it is the difference between life and death. Failure to follow your pre-flight checklist can mean dire consequences!

Luckily, our checklist isn't on the same level of magnitude. However, I use the analogy to encourage you to develop a "way of thinking" about looking at weather. Try to tick off the element of your own personal checklist whenever you are pondering weather patterns and trends. Try to develop this practice as a personal habit. Put the weather through its paces, so to speak. Ask yourself the same questions and probe the seemingly easy answers for alternate scenarios. Weather happens. It always has and it always will. Whether it happens that we can understand how weather happens is entirely dependent on our "way of thinking" about weather. Although no one ever has or ever will be able to predict weather with guaranteed 100% accuracy, we believe that it is possible to form and craft reasonable "best guesses" that generally reflect prevailing climate trends.

Even if no one can predict the weather, we can all have fun discussing and pondering the weather--it is one common topic that all humans everywhere share. The tools we have been using here on this page will always stand you in good stead. They are the bread and butter tools of weather forecasters everywhere. As such, your use of these tools gives you one leg up on anyone else who simply relies on the "gossip of the day" to form their weather opinions.

I am sure you will find your own personal balance in use of these tools. What works for me probably won't work for you in exactly the same way. However, I suspect we will all wind up using the same tools, even if they are ranked and ordered in slightly different ways.

My "Weather Life" always begins and ends with the jetstream. As I've said before here, I eat, sleep, live and breathe the jetstream. Even if I am not writing about it on this blog, you can be sure it is the very first thing that I pay attention to. "Where is the jetstream?" is the top question that is and always will be riveted into my brain. I would suggest that you also adopt this mantra question "Where's the jet?" as your top-of-the-checklist item.

"Where's the water vapor?" is the next topic on my checklist. To me, the jetstream and the water vapor go hand-in-hand. They are like the sides of a coin--forever joined. I like to know what is happening to the water vapor all year every year. I have been watching the US Navy's water vapor maps since I discovered them way back in 1996. Susun and I even tried to visit the Monterrey Naval Research Lab in 2002 but we were turned away by machine gun toting guards. There are many depictions of water vapor available on the internet. I like the Navy's the best. It is like an old friend, someone I can trust, someone I know and someone who won't let me down in a pinch. So I dote on the jetstream and the water vapor. When we are traveling and have perhaps only a few minutes available on a public computer in some forgotten library in some dust-ball downtown, I go to the jetstream and the water vapor. They are my anchors and the foundation of everything I thinnk about when I think of weather patterns.

I have put the map of the NWS Office locations as the Number 3 link for a specific reason. It's because the AFD's are my "goto" source of weather perspectives. AFD, as you recall, means "Area Forecast Discussion." Each shift in each NWS office prepares at least one AFD each day.
By reading the various AFD's, I have the assembled knowledge of many lifetimes of forecaster wisdom at my fingertips. Here in Idaho Falls I read the Pocatello AFD at least twice each day. When storms approach, I broaden my horizon and read the neighboring NWS Office AFD's. When a really big event is taking shape, I might read the AFD's along the Pacific Coast or as far south as Phoenix and San Diego. To find any AFD in America, simply look at the little map at left and spy out the name of the NWS Office. Thes use this search string in your Google search field: "(__office name__) NWS AFD discussion." Nine times out of ten, this will bring up the correct link to get to the latest AFD for the office of your choice. The AFD's are your Best Friends in this business. Never leave home without them!

The next items are more or less equal--the NWS Composite warning map and the five-day QPF. The warning map shows what's happening right now. The QPF shows the expected precipitation for the up to five days. They give you a great "reality check" in formation of your opinions about the weather today and in the immediate future. I rely heavily on each of them and would be lost without them.

The next two links are also pretty much equal--surface temperatures and the national high & low map. These two links work great in combination together. There are at least a ba-zillion weather maps showing daily surface temps and the ebb and flow of highs and lows. I have picked these maps because they are clea, simple and colorful. Plus, you can see them without having to endure a blizzard of online advertising so common with the commercial weather websites.

The Model Animaiton Link is interesting but can be very misleading. Use it with caution. It certainly is fun to look at but, bear in mind, it's a model. If you read the AFD's as much as I do, you will know that every forecaster who has ever lived has been fooled often by the models. The model animation will give you a medium decent good perspective on how patterns "MIGHT" shape up in the 10 day forecast period. Use a little bit of "left english" and a few grains of salt whenever you click into the model animations.

The Climate Prediction Center is a great website. I've used it for probably as many years as it's been in existence. CPC give you the broad brush strokes of upcoming climate. As such it's a lot like a work of art--the beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Keep the CPC graphics at arm's length to enjoy them the most. If you dwell too much on what the CPC has to say, you're almost certain to be disappointed. However, the CPC is a valuable tool when taken in conjunction with the other above tools at your disposal.

Spaceweather is our next link. Spaceweather is a highly entertaining website. I plan on looking at it every day from this point forward. Readers Gary W. (Lizard) suggested we use it for this blog. I was hooked immediately. Thanks, Gary! Space weather won't have the same immediate impact on our weather as a clod front sweeping ashore. However, as the upcoming sun spot cycle begins to take shape, you will begin to see some strong relationships between solar output and the behavior of the jetstream. Right now, the sun is as tame as a sleeping tiger in a zoo. But beware, when this next sun spot cycle gets rolling, it will be anything but sleeping! And the impacts on our earth weather could be profound. Keep an eye on space weather via Spaceweather--it's the best such website there is anywhere on the planet!

Most readers know how I feel about volcanoes. Heck, it three volcanoes in the Aleutians that prompted me to start this blog way back in November 2008. I first learned about the impact of volcanoes on our weather in 1977 when I read Iben Browning's "Climate and The Affairs of Man." One of my Loyal Readers and True Friends, Dave E. continues to send me the Browning Newsletter now published by Iben's daughter. If you don't realize how important volcanoes are to our planetary weather, then you need to go to reform school! Volcanoes are the single most important factor in shaping our weather over the long-term. Nothing else comes remotely close to their impact. Period. I put this link near the bottom not because it isn't important. I put it there because volcanoes don't erupt every day. They only erupt once in awhile. But their presence is ever-present and therefore you MUST pay attention to volcanoes. Visit the volcano website often. Keep an eye on their condition and what's happening around the globe. Looks at where their ash and gas goes in the atmosphere. Pay attention to what's downstream from their location. Make volcano watching a major part of your life form this day forward. Promise?

The Global SST's are very imporant, too. They don't lie. What you see is what you get. Yes, they change. But they don't change quickly. They "evolve." Watching the evolution of SST's is like watching a very slow waltz. It's enchanting and captivating. The key thing to watch for in the SST's is large areas of hot or cold water. The larger and the more extreme, the more impact it is likely to have on weather. If you have time and inclination, I suggest you become conversant in all of the alhabet soup phases of the oceans. The oceans are alive. They are not static bodies of water just sitting there. Oceans are doing stuff all the time. They are conducting "ocean business" and their business affects our business. Big time! The more you learn abou tthe oceans' impact on weather, the happier you will be. Trust me, time spent sutdying oceans is time well spent. However, if you have no time to spend studying oceans, at least watch the SST's--they are kind of like the financial reports of a business. Lots of activity had to happen for a business to be able to complile and file a financial report. Ditto with oceans--lots of "stuff" had to happen in the business of being an ocean for the SST's to rise or fall. You won't really know what went on behind the scenes but at least you get to see the "reports." Never forget to pay attention to SST's. The day you do is the day you will get blindsided!

Below the SST link is the buoy link. This is a "reality check" link. When you see a big storm sweeping ashore, you can check its passport by going out to a buoy anchored in the line of fire. Buoys wil tell you if the sea is really getting its anatomy kicked. Sometimes, storms appear to be full of fury but when you check the buoy data, you will see it's all hype and tease. Buoys don't lie!

Finally, we come to the SNOTEL website and it's companion the USGS real time streamflow gateway. As you know, I refer often to the USGS data. However, I just added this link today for your convenience. Snow and water are the measurable output of storms. They are the "bottom line," so to speak. A storm can be all fuss and bluster but it might not really yield anything of substance. The SNOTEL and streamflow websites will tell you "the rest of the story," as the late Paul Harvey would say. Going to those websites reminds me of a guy I saw in the Customer Service line at a grocery store this week. You could look at the guy and know he had some low rent, minimum wage job. He was clutching his weekly paycheck and he was waiting in line to cash it. His clothes were dirty for a hard day's work and his hands showed the price he paid to hold that paycheck. I couldn't see the eact amount but I could spy it was a small check. I watch him smile when he looked at that check and I felt his pride in himself for a week's worth of hard work. The line was long and slow, so he had time to glance often as his check. Each time as he did, many thoughts flowed through my mind. I realized that's what we do when we look at the SNOTEL's and the streamflows. We're proud of our bottom line--we're proud we have these gifts from our weather--we're proud to have weathered our storms and we're danged happy we're standing in line to cash our check! We're looking for some good times tonight!

Well, there you have it. Don't spend it all in one place--save some for tomorrow, too. I wish you well in your study of our weather. I know this blog will be a great place to visit even if there are no regular posts spewing forth from the blog author. I'm certain that it will be useful to you for a long time to come. I've had a great time writing in during these last 120 days. yes, it started November 8 and today is March 8, 120 days to the whisker! Thanks for being my Loyal Readers. Have a great day and Happy Trails! Cheers from John P.

The Saturday Shuffle

Greetings, Dear Readers! Only two more weeks until the first day of Spring! This particular post will be a grab bag of various topics--nothing really interesting or important to discuss this morning.

Tomorrow's Sunday School will be the same lesson planned last week. We want to do a review session for you. We will be winding down this blog very soon and we want to make sure that you are properly prepared in all of the tips and tricks for using the links at left to improvise your own weather prognostications. This blog will be going into hibernation on the Vernal Equinox--afterall, the blog is about WINTER--not SPRING!

While reviewing all of our links at left, I was intrigued by the massive area of warm surface temps in the midwest and east. Gee, wasn't it barely a week ago that they were shivering and getting pounded? Also, the QPF back there is pretty substantial. Things are pretty quiet on the Western Front. The far Pac NW is getting some action and perhaps the Idaho Panhandle, too. Otherwise, it's pretty bland.

The CPC people say that California will have above normal precip during the next 30 days. I'd reckon that's a reasonable guess judging from the persistent Pacific patterns prevailing out yonder.

Spaceweather is quite interesting today--check it out. There's an awesome photo of Saturn. Saturn is at perigee this weekend and also at opposition to the Sun. That's kind of a big deal in the astro circles. Actually, it might even be a big deal in the world financial circles, too, but that's another story beyond the scope of this blog. Whatever the case, be sure to check out the pretty pictures of Saturn on the Spaceweather website.

I roamed 'round the SNOTEL site looking at the percent-average of various California rivers. They sure look like they are in good shape, all things considered. Meanwhile, Arizona rivers and reservoirs are in REALLY good shape. Roosevelt Lake is 100% full and there's over 2000 cfs coming into the lake. That means it's spilling at least 2,000 cfs! Over in New Mexico most of the state is under a red flag warning. Oddly, the red flag warning ends at the Arizona line. I wonder how that works? Maybe the wind knows when it enters New Mexico that it's supposed to pick up the pace.

The Upper Snake River is in good shape and Jackson Lake should fill and spill this year. Tater Nation will be happy about that.

Well, that's about all there is to report weatherwise today. Tomorrow's discussion will be very generic in scope--just a review of how to use the tools we have assembled on this website. It's been a lot of fun writing this Winter 0809 blog. Maybe next year we will go it again. Who knows? Have a great day and GO PLAY!

Ah, HA! What were we saying?

Hey, Dear Readers, I have been taking a break from the Winter 0809 blog. Somehow, reality got real distorted over in California and I just decided to "chuck it" for a well-deserved break. It's Thursday night and so I decided to once again come back and "tune in" to my blog.
Lo and behold, I just found this snippet online:

"Heavy snowfall brought a dramatic increase to the Sierra snowpack, which has lagged significantly below average levels this season. As much snow as normally falls in the Tahoe-Truckee area during the entire month of March fell during its first three days, experts said.

On Wednesday, the Truckee River and Lake Tahoe Basin's snowpacks were measured at 87 percent of average for the date, up from 79 percent Tuesday morning and the lower 70s a week ago.

"I looked at those numbers two or three times this morning and just said, 'Wow,'" said Dan Greenlee, a hydrologist with the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service.

"It was a phenomenal storm," Greenlee said. "We still need some more, but it's definitely an improvement."

The storm dumped enough precipitation into Lake Tahoe in three days to raise its water level nearly 4 inches, increasing Tahoe's water storage by about 38,000 acre-feet, Greenlee said. That's more than 12 billion gallons."

Well, as you might expect, this type of stuff gets me pretty excited. I guess I was "right" afterall. Once that Muscle Bound Guy, Arni What's-His-Name, said they were in a statewide drought, well, I guess I kinda lost interest. Even though I knew it wasn't really "so," that type of political hype really just annoyed me enough to take a break from this weather blog. Afterall, I also write blogs about volunteers, food shopping and trading Zions Bank stock. I don't need to hang out here. So I took a break.

It's so nice to come back from my break and see that Lake Tahoe gained 12 billion gallons from the last storm. That really kind of validates things like the QPF graphics and the jetstream and the Navy water vapor maps and all of that other esoteric stuff we watch, doesn't it? Geeze!

Well, I am going to run along now--this was just a quick visit back to the Winter 0809 blog--we will add more insights tomorrow. In the meantime, I suggest readers of this blog enjoy a little moment of self-congratulations. We all saw this coming and we should be proud of ourselves. Thank you for your support.

Tuesday thoughts

Greetings, Dear Readers! I have posted the latest 5-day QPF forecast above. You can see that California once again is getting all the action. I clicked around through the NWS National Warning map graphic and I found this snippet: "THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 FEET TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 5500 FOOT ELEVATION." That's pretty cool language!

We've been having various varieties of rain in Idaho Falls today. It's been like a whole progression of all the types of rain. None of them have been hard rain--just different varieties. It's been fun. We've had rainbows, too. It was clear at lunch and Susun and I ate outside on the patio of a fancy restaurant. It felt hot. But then the weather changed later in the afternoon and it was too cold and windy to go feed the geese on the greenbelt near the Falls. Go figure!

By the way, if you haven't been over to Spaceweather.Com, you really ought to make a visit tonight. There's a Solar Prominence that's pretty dazzling right now. I won't bore you with the details. Just go visit Spaceweather's link in the left column and see for yourself. be sure to click through the various links--it's impressive!

The Snake River here went ice free at the Falls today. All the local tongues were wagging about it. People pay more attention sometimes that I tend to give them credit for. Now that I can see actual real open water I am trying to think of a way to pry our frozen canoe out of the glacier beside the garage and get it on the water. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

Well, there's lots of weather to enjoy, so ENJOY IT!

Gravity Wave? Who knew?

Perhaps you have been as intrigued as I have been by media coverage of The Big Winter Storm back east. As you might expect, I have been lapping up the various storm stories like a purring kitten in front of the warm bowl of milk.

This morning the headline in one of the stories immediately caught my bleary eyes: The Philadelphia Inquirer's headline blared: "Gravity Wave: powered late season snowstorm. Gravity Wave? Gee, I guess I have fallen behind in the Lingo Wars or somehow dropped off the Nomenclature Wagon or something. Gravity Waves? Huh?

Well, guess what? Gravity waves are totally real you can read all about them, too.First, click here for the Philly story. Naturally, I immediately went to Wikipedia in hopes that awesome online tome would have something about gravity waves.Sure enough, here is the Wiki entry on the phenomena.Once at Wiki you will find this really impressive piece of "math art" adorning the Wiki page. If this doesn't make you want to drink more coffee, I sure don't know what will! Who knew? (Click the graphic for a larger one.)

Quite the comparison!

I'm posting up the afternoon surface temp map. It's quite the comparison. If you look at the overnight temps below and then this map, you can clearly see the massive invasion of warm temps around a huge area of the Western United States! If this isn't the first harbinger of spring, I really don't know what is!

A rain event

Don't ya love those pretty colors? Well, they do tell a story. Take a Big Picture look at the advance of warmer temps coming in from west-to-east all up and down the Pacific Coastline. These are generally the overnight temps depicted here. Those warmer temps are progged to march right into Eastern Idaho today, tonight and tomorrow. Since they will be accompanied with ample moisture, we are looking at a rain event taking shape here.

So far, it doesn't appear to be enough rain to raise the flood flags, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how it shapes up and progresses through the region.
I'd suspect this event will put a serious dent in the low elevation snow and usher in the infamous "Mud Season" in one fell swoop. I put this surface temp graphic up here this morning because I think it's the key indicator for the next couple of days. Keep an eye on the progression and evolution of surface temps to get a good idea how the Intermountain West will be affected by the incoming Pacific precipitation.

East Coast water discussion

First, let's dispel some media myths that are running rampant tonight. New England is NOT going to get buried in snow! No, it's really not. Yes, it's going to have a nice storm. As you can see from the above graphic, some people in some places are going to get really stuccoed with more than a foot. But that's NOT all of New England. I've beenreading some pretty hysterical media reports tonight. You'd think the Statue of Liberty was going to get covered to her eyeballs! As usual, it's typical media hype going on here. Tomorrow, I am sure CNN will be filled with the obligatory blizzard scenes, people stuck in drifts higher than their house, all the usual suspects. But, honest, it's NOT all of New England, just a lucky few!OK, meanwhile, let's take a look at Polly Pacific. I drew a nice happy face on her earlier today. As you can see, there is an epic fetch and reach to the water vapor tracks right now. It almost looks as if a giant hand is dipping water from the Subtropical region and flinging it at North America. Couple this Subtropical tap with the typical Siberian water tap and you've really got a recipe for some storm action!

I went back and leafed through all of the archived Navy water vapor maps and it sure does look to me like what's hitting New England tonight had its pedigree in the deep tropics. I think it came up on what I've been calling "The Southern Track." If so, this particular storm promises to raise some eyebrows for its timing and intensity. This is March 1st, afterall!

If you spend some time comparing the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, East Pacific and Atlantic water vapor shots on the Navy website, I think that you will become at least as curious as I am about whazzup out there. Idaho seems to be perpetually on the outside looking in lately but some other parts of our landscape are getting stuccoed pretty good!

Once again, I hark back to that "crescendo theory." I keep getting the distinct feelings that this winter really, really wants to go out with guns firing full force in one giant blaze of epic glory! If this current storm is a precursor to that scenario, we could be in for some real memorable Legacy Storms!

And Along Came Polly Pacific

What can you say about people who play with their food....and weather, too? Maybe they have too much time on their hands? Well, whatever, I couldn't resist on this one. It was crying out for doodling. Photoshop it ain't. We are running late this Sunday morning so Sunday School is also off to a tardy start. Three demerits to the teacher--he's been playing with his food and weather again! (NEWS FLASH--Sunday School has been canceled! That's right, recess came early and now you can all GO PLAY!)

National Snow Cover

Just an FYI. Here's today's Intellicast national snow cover map. And here's the link to find it yourself should the urge ever arise.

Arctic Circle has all the fun!

Those lucky (but frozen) puppies up in the Arctic Circle latitudes have all the fun! Being as it's a Saturday morning, I decided to roam over to Spaceweather.Com and see whazzup. They have some nice aurora photos there such as the one above. The guy who took the one above is Aleksander Chernucho,Mt. Khibiny, Kolyskia peninsula, Russia. The photo was taken yesterday when it was 27FEB here and 28 FEB there. Aleksander has a really cool photo album on a Russian website. It's all in Russian language but the photos speak a universal language and you don't need to know Russian to enjoy them. Note the little slider bar at the top of his album. Play with it and you automatically resize the pictures. COOL!

Well, the Aurora doesn't really have anything whatsoever to do with our North American weather. However, I thought it would be nice to have a "change of pace," so to speak, and put something purely fun and entertaining up on El Blog today.

As winter is fast nearing an end, I think tomorrow's Sunday School will be a most excellent time to begin a review in preparation for your semester final exam. So come prepared to think and learn. Okie, dokie? Have a fun day. You may go play now.

NORCAL drought is history

(See note at end of post.) The February 19 drought monitor already showed NORCAL "going green" again. That's a HUGE improvement from previous drought forecasts. Well, that was more than a week ago. Now, lookie here, the "hazards assessment" shows NORCAL is right back in the crosshairs for incoming Pacific water bombs. Hum...I am going out on a big limb once again and making a statement: The NORCAL Drought is over. It's history. Bambi and Smokey and all the little forest creatures can rest easy this summer--their home isn't going to burn to the ground. Nope, the heat's off up in NORCAL. Whew, that's huge!

Meanwhile, of course, SOCAL can't buy a break. So, that's where we would expect all the dry season fires to be centered once again. But at least the top half of The Golden State is Okie Dokie for 2009. Congratulations, NORCAL!

Note added 28FEB: Arnie What's-His-Name, the California Guv, came out yesterday and declared a statewide drought disaster or emergency or something like that. The article I read says things are 57% of normal. Well, I guess no one's checked the SNOTEL's today as they are all significantly above 57%. The Klamath in NORCAL is running 90% of normal. That's ain't great but that ain't no drought either! When you add in the progged precip upcoming in the next five days, there's no doubt it will be at or above 100% up there. Yes, SOCAL is hurting but NORCAL is out of the woods. Iguess it's politically more expedient to scare the begeebers out of EVERYBODY rather than telling it like it is.

Redoubt Dissected!

Well, folks, this is what a volcanic cone looks like when it gets WAAAY too much attention! People with a heck of a lot of time on their hands find things like "ice pistons" and "slurry tracks." Heck, I thought Ice Pistons was a dormant basketball team! And are Slurry Tracks what happens when you drink to much wine and try to use your iPod? Well, we're having fun with Redoubt, no doubt. Hey, meanwhile, the AVO Crowd has bumped Cleveland to Code Yellow. That's NOT Mellow Yellow--Yellow means something is happening that we need to pay attention to. I clicked through every link I could find but, so far, I haven't found out why Cleveland is now Code Yellow. Cleveland could be a nice little chimney, puffing out periodic doses of Sulfuric Acid into the Arctic Skies. Maybe Ol' Man Winter just doesn't want to end his gig this year! Click here to visit AVO.

Alaskan Action

I was roaming around looking for a good rendition of the new addition to the sidebar--NWS Offices nationwide. I happened to stumble into the latest Alaskan warning map. Gee, it's a colorful little bugger! So, I clicked off to see whazzup in The Last Frontier, as they like to call themselves. Lots of blizzard warnings, gales, and storms of various varieties. It's kind of interesting, actually. Click here to go to the summary page and then just scroll down and skim all the fun nomenclature. NOTE: We just put a text narrative at the very bottom of this blog explaining how to capture and process a screen shot like the one above. You might enjoy reading it.

Site Stats

A couple of weeks ago I decided to put a "site monitor" on this blog. I wanted to know if people were really reading the blog. Once in awhile, I get a comment but not very often, as you know. So, I wanted to know if I was writing into a vacuum. The last two weeks of statistics tell me that this blog has a fairly regular readership. It looks like a couple of dozen readers visit the blog each day. That's really cool!
THANK YOU, Dear Readers, your visits are appreciated. Your visits also help provide some inspiration to keep improving the sidebar on this blog to provide you with a "one-stop-shopping" experience for your "big picture" weather prognostication needs.

The stats package I chose comes highly recommended. It's called Site Meter and you can click here to review its overall operation. Here are the stats logged since I installed the monitoring scripts:

Visits

Total .......................... 235
Average per Day ................. 23
Average Visit Length .......... 1:30
This Week ...................... 158

Page Views

Total .......................... 523
Average per Day ................. 40
Average per Visit .............. 1.8
This Week ...................... 281

Pretty impressive water vapor!

Okie, dokie, Weather Fans,let's take a look at the Northern Hemisphere water vapor patterns, courtesy of the US Navy. Gee, something tells me there's a heap o' water heading our way! All of the water taps appear to be working together right now. In football, I think they call this "piling on!" Right now, I have no clue how and where all this stuff is going to smack our continent. But its a pretty safe bet that somebody, someplace is going to get smacked real hard by this stuff. Definitely keep an eye on the jetstream, run those model simulations at least twice a day and rivet your attention to the march of the water vapor across the Pacific.
Some years it seems like Winter just has to end with a GIANT crescendo--kind of like one of those awesome epic symphonies that bring you right up out of your seat as every instrument builds to a nerve-pulsing finale. I am beginning to wonder if this winter is going to be what I like to call a Crescendo Winter. If so, batten your barn, buckle up your babies and hunker down, Nellie!

Some Late February Precip

The Snake River Plain is in line for a wee little bit of precip today. Those "pointy thing" (AKA: the Tetons) to our East will probably get some nice powder out of the deal. The Navy's water vapor maps show a lot of moisture boogie-ing across the Pacific. The QPF people show some decent accumulations progged over the next five days. One of our Official Blog Followers is in the crosshairs of that QPF in Brookings, Oregon. He left a great comment about how the storm impacted their location. Please read it below. Thanks, Dean-O, we sure appreciate it a LOT! Keep 'em coming! March continues to show hopeful signs of being a Precip Producer. We are now less than one month away from the official first day of Spring. Generally speaking, big winter storms decline in frequency and intensity after the Vernal Equinox. From that point forward, Old Sol is on a fast track to keep its appointment with the Summer Solstice a mere 90 days away. Enjoy these storms while you can--times, they are a changin'!

Sunday School Blow Up!

Greetings and welcome once again to another thrilling session of Sunday School! Today we're going to talk volcanoes. We'd like to give you a firm, fundamental footing on this volatile topic. Volcanic eruptions arguably have more of an impact on our climate than any other single factor. I say "arguably" because some people disagree with that theory. That's a political topic we won't cover in Sunday School today. The study of volcanoes could easily take over your entire life. Some geologists specialize int the study of volcanoes. For our purposes today, you simply need a good grasp on how to review volcano facts and know where to go to keep an eye on evolving volcanic activity. Afterall, this is Sunday School and we have recess coming up soon!

By far the easiest place to learn about volcanoes is Wikipedia. This amazing online resource has most everything an armchair layman would ever want to know about volcanoes. Click here to start your volcano refresher. You will see many links on this "gateway" page. If you want to see just how destructive volcanoes have been during recorded history, go to this link. The Big Grand Daddy of recent volcanoes was Krakatoa. The old funky drawing on this page shows Krakatoa before it disintegrated. There's a famous year in American History called "The Year Without A Summer." It's widely believed that this epic time period was caused by volcanic activity. You can click here to read about "The Year Without A Summer." Obviously, there's enough links from those Wikipedia pages for you to get involved in hours and hours of self-study. I'd recommend that you fully acquaint yourself with all of the Wiki resources on volcanoes. If you are serious about watching weather, you really need to be very well grounded in the science of volcanic activity. You also need to know how to track current volcanic activity.

Let's move into the tracking phase, shall we? As you might expect the US Geological Survey is the world leader in tracking volcanic activity. Click here to go to their gateway website. Be sure to bookmark that website. I think I will put it in the left hand column here, too. Check in on that website often--make it a regular habit, just like watching the jetstream. It's important to note that the mainstream media (that's defined as the media that's obsessed with celebrities and banal fluff) won't alert you to volcanic activity unless it's a huge event. In the meantime, minor volcanic activity can have a big impact on weather. For example, the Aleutian eruptions last summer received scant media coverage because the media was focused on the Obama-McCain-Palin-Biden quadrangle and who cared about some no-name volcano? However, those 3 volcanoes spewed enough stuff into the correct latitudes to really create a notable winter, a winter that generated all sorts of subsequent "media events."

Let's not rag on the media. Let's focus on improving your volcano-watcher skills. One of the largest concentrations of active volcanoes on earth is located on the Kamchatka Peninsula. As Gov. Winky Palin might say, "You can almost see it from Alaska." In any given year, the Kamchatka volcanoes have had and are capable of having an affect on our climate. It's a trifle difficult keeping track of Kamchatka volcanoes because of the language barrier. The graphic on this page shows just how many volcanoes are clustered on Kamchatka. Pretty impressive, eh? Click here to read about KVERT. KVERT is the Russian equivalent of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Theoretically, the USGS and AVO work hand-in-hand with KVERT. One hopes that such cooperative efforts continue and remain productive and friendly. Luckily, satellite technology really unveils the activity and impacts of volcanoes in this day and age.
There are many more ways to track volcanic activity. However, let's not ramble too much farther here today--it's now Recess Time! Thanks for attending Sunday School this week. Now GO PLAY!

Redoubt update

Alaska's Mount Redoubt has been pretty quiet the past few days. The above graphics are the seismic data. You can see how the shaking and rumbling has taped off recently and is nice and tame. The AVO--that's Alaska Volcano Observatory--still feels like Redoubt is a likely candidate to erupt within days or weeks. You can visit their special redoubt website and read about their "scenarios" for Redoubt. They feel a repeat of the 1989-90 episode is most likely. Click here to visit that page. Remember, click the small images to see bigger ones.

Some brief thoughts

As you can see from the above latest QPF graphic, NORCAL is in line for some impressive new precip--over 5 inches if the weather wonks are correct. Idaho is once again on the outside looking in.

I'm taking a break from posting here on the Winter0809 Blog until Sunday. We're going to a Dog Sled Derby about an hour north of here tomorrow. Hopefully, I will dream up something for Sunday School.

In the meantime, I'd suggest you take a look at the jetstream--it's very fractured and contorted and weird looking. Likewise, seek out the global water views--Asian continues to package and ship some impressive globs of water vapor. Also, please glance at the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts on the CPC link. They are both showing above normal precip. In other words, you've all learned how this drill works---do you own forecasting now!

And, just for grins, Google up Mount Redoubt and keep an eye on it, too. Heck, if you do all that stuff, who needs me to write anything here anyway?

Have a great evening and a wonderful Saturday--we will see you Sunday! Cheers, JP

Our Sun.

We are smack in the middle of transition between two Sunspot Cycles. Right now the solar disk is abnormally quiet. "Sun watchers" are getting antsy. No one knows when the sun will switch gears and start exhibiting signs of the new cycle. In the meantime, all eyes are on the sun. ANYTHING that happens on the solar disk is subject of much discussion. And so it is today with this activity. It may not be the stuff of solar storms. It may not be capable of producing a brilliant aurora. But it sure is fun to see.

Why are WE watching the sun, anyway? Well, Bubba, here's the bottom line: when all is said and done, Ol' Sol is our "weather maker." What happens on the sun makes its way to earth and affects our weather. You can take those words to the bank! That's why we watch the solar disk every day of the year, at least when we can get to the internet.

As the sun goes, so goes earth!

Just how is Alaska, anyway?

I haven't had time to check in on Alaska lately. I've assumed it's cold up there. I noticed on the NWS Warning composite that the North Slope is under a Blizzard Warning. So I clicked off and, sure enough, it's gonna be your typical way-be-below zero temps with fierce winds and lots of snow. Hum...sounds intense! Meanwhile I clicked off into the Bering Sea and, well, yeah, 50 knot winds, 20+ foot waves.
It's not so bad in the lower Alaskan latitudes--just a normal winter. However, it's a good idea to keep an eye on Alaska. If it gets tropical up there, I'd guess the affects of the summer volcano ash and gas are history. It looks like Ol' Man Winter has Northern Alaska by the throat right now. Cold. Snow. Wind. High Seas. All the usual suspects.

It all depends...

Whether our weather will continue this pattern into March depends on the jetstream and the water vapor supply. Right now, it looks good. As you can see, I've annotated today's jetstream to show the Northern Hemisphere symmetry. Remember that "wagon wheel" analogy I used quite some time ago? Well, this is as symmetrical as the wagon wheel spokes get! The jetstream is exhibiting some real nice behavior in this graphic. Meanwhile, the water vapor production (see below)continues to look good. Siberia is very generous to us. That on-again, off-again subtropical tap shows promise as well.

As you may recall, we started this blog many moons ago on the premise that the Summer 2008 Aleutian volcanic eruptions were going to distort our Northern Hemisphere winter weather patterns. I think we can all safely agree that those patterns have helped produce a real memorable winter. Whether it was due to the volcanic factor will be the topic of much discussion as the climatological postmortems are rolled out in the months ahead.Let's assume for a minute that the volcanic factor was, indeed, at the root level of this winter's interesting weather. If so, the question becomes: "Have those volcanic factors diminished?" The answer would be "Probably." It takes many months for the gas and ash to disperse enough to lessen its impact on deflecting solar energy back into space. However, I'd be inclined to wager there's enough of it left to eek out another 4-6 weeks of solar energy disruption in the far northern latitudes. Maybe less, maybe more. So, if we carry that line of speculation forward, I'm beginning to be inclined to think that March could be a Pretty Good Precipitation Producer. Maybe I should coin an acronym for that--PGPP.

The wild card in this deck remains Mt. Redoubt. So far, it's been a real dud--a little steam here, a little rumble there but nothing remotely resembling the early dire warnings issued by the Chicken Little Volcano Heads. But you never know--a volcano has its own clock that's ticking its own time. We could wake up one morning to a major motion picture on the CNN Headline News. There could be ash and gas getting shot 40-50-60,000 feet into the polar latitudes.

I can tell you one thing pretty much for sure. If Redoubt blows it's top, there's no doubt we're in for a cold, wet spring and probably a cold wet early summer as well. That's where the wild card lies.

When's the party over?

The screen shot on the right is the overall QPF for the next five days. The left shot is the current NWS warning composite as of Monday morning. That Winter Storm Warning coloration pretty much covers most of the Sierra Mountains. During the next five days, the same area is progged to get almost 3 inches of precip. Meanwhile, the 8-14 forecast shows above normal precip for a wide area of the West.

Our next post will (above) will take a look at the water vapor patterns and the jetstream. The question arising now is "when's the party over?" No pattern persists forever. The first day of Spring is less than five weeks away. In the past few years, the party's ended right about this time of year. In the Good Ol' Daze, March could be a real weather & water producer. Will the good times keep rolling right into March? Fourteen days puts us into early March!

Tell it like it is!

Hey, those Reno weather wonks are gettin' some ATTITUDE! Check this snippet from the 7:26 pm 15FEB AFD:

"NICE WARM CONVEYOR SHOWING UP ON 290-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST TO TAHOE/LASSEN. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...HAVE TOSSED THE NAM IN THE TRASH FOR THIS STORM. IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE POSITION OF THE BAND WELL AT ALL SINCE FRIDAY AND WAS EVEN DRY FOR TAHOE UNTIL 21Z TODAY?!?!?!

Yeah, "TOSSED THE NAM IN THE TRASH!" Right ON, Bro! Sometimes these NWS people pay WAY too much attention to their models. They wring their hands and agonize about what the models "mean." It grows old and annoying sometimes. It's refreshing to read how somebody in Reno simply said, "Throw the SOB in the TRASH!" Yeah, that's my kinda attitude!

Lately, Reno gets my vote as the "GOTO" place for an exciting AFD. They will probably soon get called on the "Climo Carpet" for all their enthusiasm and straight talk. But, hey, let's enjoy it while we can.

Spaceweather

The photo above is just a reminder to visit Spaceweather often. Don't forget! That website simply ROX~!

Sunday School has Visual Aids!

Hey, there, Class, Thanks for showing up for Sunday School this morning! As promised last week, we're going to walk you through the new-fangled NRCS method for finding out the "percent of average" of any given watershed snowpack. It used to be pretty simple. But you know the gubmint motto--"if it ain't broke, change it!" The new method is pretty good but I miss the old graphs-at-a-glance. This one's OK and I guess I will get used to it. Maybe you will, too. Whatever the case may be we gotta "dance with the one that brung us" and, in this case, that means the good ol' NRCS.
Ok, this Sunday School is gonna be real short and, hopefully, sweet. Why? Well, it's bright and sunny outside and I am itching to git outdoors and "get a life." That's why!

You begin this process by clicking on the NRCS link in the left hand column. By now, you should now that drill. Then you will have to follow some steps that aren't really too complicated. However, there's enough steps that you can get lost and take a wrong turn. That's why I made these graphics below. Just follow the steps and tailor your final approach for whatever state-of-mind suits you and then you're cleared for landing on Runway 0809! Have a great day. Study your Visual Aids, practice a little bit and then GO PLAY!



PS--I forgot to mention that one nice thing about the new format is that you can get the "percent average" for any given day, including today, February 15!!! That's actually pretty cool.

More focus on California

Here is some really strongly worded language:

"California is facing the most significant water crisis in its history. After experiencing two years of drought and the driest spring in recorded history, water reserves are extremely low. With the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ecosystem near collapse, court-ordered restrictions on water deliveries from the Delta have reduced supplies from the state's two largest water systems by twenty to thirty percent.

Drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin and a Sierra snowpack that is now dangerously unreliable due to global climate change, is leaving many communities throughout California facing mandatory restrictions on water use and/or rising water bills. If the drought continues into next year, the results could be catastrophic to our economy." Go to the website where we found this snippet.

The above map linked from the Climate Prediction Centers says it all--NORCAL is at ground zero of a genuine water crisis. Right now, tonight, even as we write this blog post, NORCAL might just be getting a "get out of jail" pass and California might dodge an intergalactic bullet. NORCAL is getting plastered tonight.

It's awesome, it's epic and it's great!

Above you see the water vapor blanketing the most hard hit part of drought stricken California. Below, you see a screen shot of the next few days of accumulated precipitation this area. At this point in time, it really can't get a whole lot better than this!

Da BUOY

We wish to encourage our Dear Readers to check "Da BUOY!" NOAA and their cohorts run a first class buoy operation spread all over the far flung ocean surface. When you see something happening on a Navy water vapor, run along and check Da BUOY!

It sure looks like that big Wadzilla up north is huffing and puffing its way into a happening deal. Some of the winds up there early this morning were yawners and now they are gusting to 40+ knots. The wave heights haven't picked up too much, maybe 10-13 feet but the winds auger for an increase in the waves, too.

With the internet and satellite technology we have now, there's no excuse for not beaming into every little nook and cranny that you can. Ocean buoys are a priceless resource. Check 'em out!

Wild West Jet

Today's jetstream diagram reminds me of either rodeo or some scene from a 1950's black and white Western shoot-'em-up. It's rip snortin' and rarin' to go! It's been quite a long time since I've seen anything this shredded in the jetstream. Heck, it might even be Jetstream Triage! Where do you look first to analyze and "treat" the situation?
Meanwhile, a glance at the water vapor situation this morning says that we're still on tap for a few more waves of water to wash ashore. The Western Pacific shows that is is attempting to reconnect its firehose the Phillipino hydrant. If we get that subtropical connection going again, WHAA--WHOOO!!!!

NORCAL is getting smacked hard as we write this, high winds, rain, snow, the whole buffet of winter jingo and major lingo. Ironically, it's NORCAL that shows up the "reddest" in gubmint's drought diagram. This type of action almost certainly will alleviate the severity of that situation.

To see it unfold, if you're interested in such stuff on a lazy Saturday morning, here's what I would recommend. First, click on the National warning map at left. Then click into one of the little colored areas up in NORCAL. Have fun reading about all the mayhem. Then start Googling various community newspapers and TV stations in that region. That should keep you entertained at least until lunch time.

A moment of truth

All eyes and hopes are on California right now. Californians might not know or realize it but lots of humans elsewhere are praying that they pull through the epic drought that they are facing. Their best odds are coming up in this next pulse and parade of storms.

I was roaming the various AFD's this evening and I found a rare bit of personal emotion being expressed. Normally, the NWS weather wonks keep their personal feelings out of their discussions. It's all "cut and dried" techno talk.

This snippet came out of Reno's afternoon AFD. You can almost sense the helplessness and near hopelessness in these words, as well as a sense of prayer, too. Maybe I am reading too much into a few scant words. I don't think so.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z RUNS...AND 12Z EURO ARE ALSO TRENDING SLOWER AND A BIT DRIER. EVEN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...1-2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE SIERRA STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT NOT THE 2-4 FEET INITIAL INDICATIONS SHOWED. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE IF THE LOW CUTS OFF ENOUGH THAT WE DONT GET THAT MUCH AT ALL. RIGHT NOW...MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE 12Z EURO/18Z GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. GIVEN THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS GONE...ALMOST EXPECTING THAT I AM STILL TOO WET. I HOPE I AM NOT. WALLMANNCheck out Buoy 46002--Gusting to 39 knots--waves to 20 feet! YES!

Precip perks up

Well, this graphic is pretty self-explanatory. If you've been watching what we've been posting, you can quickly note the quantum leap in precip in this graphic. It's huge--almost Reichter Scale!
Wow--are the Rain and Snow Gods being "nice" to California or what?

It's been a long time since we've seen California in the "red zone" of a precip event. Ignore the five inch area for a moment and look inland in the Northern Sierra and you're seeing 4.0-4.6 inches of precip. If the dynamics are correct that could translate to 3-4 feet of SNOW! That's HUGE!

GFS animation + Accuweather drought story

We all read a lot about the models that the NWS Staff uses to make their forecasts. One of the primary models is the GFS. Click here to see it's progression of storms hitting California. It's real impressive!
Well, well, well! I went to Accuweather tonight simply to type in the Idaho Falls Zip Code to get tomorrow's forecast. Lo and behold, they posted a story about 7 pm tonight saying that the California drought might be coming to an end! Hey, it's great to have somebody like Accuweather saying this. YAAA-HOOO, I don't feel like the Lone Ranger any more. (The link posted yesterday no longer works.) I snagged one of their photos because I like the way it looks. Kinda art deco in a retro-lineal sort of way, eh?

All ashore!

Here are the twin Northern Hemisphere views courtesy of the US Navy for Wednesday morning. I don't have time to draw little funky lines on them today. I wanted you to see them without having to surf around the Navy website. Also, I wanted to archive them for future reference. Note the CPC's 6-10 day forecast below. (Click on the little one to see the big one.) It has California right smack in the crosshairs of all the incoming action from El Pacifico. I am already beginning to wonder if these great "gifts of the sea" might not change around the urgent drought dynamic facing California. We're talking a lot of water progged for California. We're talking rain and snow that could continue off and on for days.
Yes, we will read about the inevitable mudslides, dramatic rescues and "all the usual suspects." However, behind the hype and hyperbole of the CNN Headline news, we could be witnessing a "sea change," pun intended, with regard to the California water supply situation. This type of incoming precipitation has potential to also really change the summer fire dynamics. All of this portends good news instead of continuing dire bad news. California is one of those places that seems to always attract the dramatic. Perhaps that's because of the state's size, style or geography. Who knows? It sure looks like another dramatic chapter is about to unfold in The Golden State. It definitely has me on the edge of my seat!

More storms probable

It's looking good for California. The five-day QPF paints at least a couple inches of water up and down The Golden State. NWS Staff in the various offices are beginning to chatter about upcoming events. We will cover this evolving event in greater detail tomorrow and in coming days. Here's a few choice words from the San Francisco AFD:

ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP AS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MARCH THROUGH THE WEST COAST...RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORM DOOR WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE LONG TERM.

BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP WITH EASILY OVER AN INCH AND POSSIBLY UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

Take a look at the Navy's global composite and you'll see why they used the word "parade" in the AFD. It sure looks like that to me, too!

Idaho appears to be on the outside looking in on all this action. We might get a table crumb or two out of it. However, we're happy to see California is getting hit. They are in a world of hurt waterwise down there. They really, really NEED a LOT of water to help them cope during the upcoming dry season. Let's hope El Pacifico doesn't let them down.

Solar buzz

This is such a cool graphic that I had to post it up right away. A loyal Blog Follower (WR) sent an article from a Vietnamese newspaper about some science guys warning about an increase in solar storms in the coming years. You can read it here.

Anyway, you can see that the article carried this graphic above. However, the graphic was tiny, tiny, tiny. I messed around with it this morning and got it up to a decent size. It's a tad blurry but what the heck? It's a wonderful depiction of the relationship between our flyspeck Earthship and the gigantic thing we call the sun. The Spaceweather website has been carrying quite a few references speculating about what might happen as the next sunspot cycle gets underway. (IF it ever does!) Click the graphic to see larger version.

The Real McCoy

Monday night, just before retiring for the evening, I received an email stating the snow situation in Flagstaff. Thanks, MJ! This morning, I scurried off to the Arizona SNOTEL network. WOW! This storm was truly "The Real McCoy."

White Horse Lake SNOTEL is south of Williams, Arizona. It often gets missed by Arizona winter storms. Not this time. It gained 2.3 inches of actual water and went from 6 inches of snow to 25 inches!

Happy Jack is another tell-tale SNOTEL. When Happy Jack gets smacked, you can figure the entire Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau got smacked. Get this: Happy Jack has gained over FOUR INCHES of water and the snow depth went from 9 to 36 inches!

Now that's a GREAT Arizona winter storm. That's the kind of storm that makes whitewater boaters grin from ear-to-ear. That's the kind of storm that fills reservoirs. That's just plain awesome.

The Tuesday morning red eye AFD says this storm is mostly gone. Maybe the Rimlands will get another inch or two today. Maybe not. The AFD says unsettled weather is in store and models are hinting at the possibility of another decent snowstorm within a week or so.

At this point, however, I'd say Arizona is "out of the woods" for this water year. As you noted in Sunday School, Arizona's reservoirs were already sitting pretty. This type of snowpack will put them over the top. Congratulations to Ol' Airy Zonie!

NOTE: Here is the text of the email rec'd last night:

"Well! We are getting dumped on for sure! Woke up to 6 inches Sunday morning, more throughout the day, six more this morning, and just coming down all day, really heavy now. Very windy, too. It's good snowball-making snow, too. We'll see how much we have in the morning. Your resident Flagstaff weather reporter, MJ"

Click here for a link to the latest Flagstaff newspaper story about the story. A DPS Commander called it, "the worst snowstorm that DPS has ever had to deal with in northern Arizona."

History of the National Weather Service

Let's switch to something a little less ominous, shall we? How about the History of the National Weather Service? Yes, I know, it might be a bit dull and boring compared to some of our other scintillating topics, but it is something we all ought to know. Perhaps I should save this stuff for Sunday School. However, I've had my fill of gloom and doom from Australia, drought from China, gales in the Bering Sea, the huff and puff of Redoubt and mudslides in Southern California.

The old photo is of Cleveland Abbe, America's first forecaster. Working as he did with the meager data at this disposal, he clearly qualifies as a visionary genius. As you might expect, NOAA has some very right and proper history of the Weather Service. This article by NOAA is billed as a description of the Signal Corps by Mr. Abbe. It's a lot more than that. Makes for excellent reading if you are a history buff.

Speaking of history, it's worth noting that the weather service's birth predates the designation of Yellowstone as a National Park! Think of it this way, when the Weather Service was born, General George Armstrong Custer still had about 6 years of his life left to live. That kind of puts it into perspective.

Fatal extremes Down Under.

"Come Hell or High Water" has a whole new meaning today in Australia! In a country as huge as Australia, anything is possible. There are floods in Northeast Australia. Meanwhile another part of the country is burning up and killing scores of people. What is going on Down Under? Google it up and see for yourself.

Short Sunday School

This will be a short Sunday School session. I'm running late this morning and want to get out and do stuff. Anyway, our lesson today is to help you understand how to monitor "the bottom line" of winter snowpack. This "bottom line" is called "runoff." It's what melts into water and flows downhill into reservoirs. From there the water is carefully measured out to anxious farmers and ranchers farther downstream. They can't farm with snow but they sure can farm with Son of Snow--the liquid gold of runoff.

The Bureau of Reclamation manages many of the water storage projects around the West. BuRec produces what it calls "teacup" diagrams showing at a glance the status of reservoirs and key streamflow for any given project. The above graphic is Sunday's Teacup for the Minidoka Project. Minidoka is the one that includes Jackson Lake in Wyoming, Palisades in Idaho, etc. Click here to go to the actual site where the teacup is located.

The next trick is to determine how to know the overall status of various reservoirs statewide. For that you have to dig deep into the US NRCS SNOTEL website. Click here for a graph of key numbers for Idaho. As you can see, each impoundment has three key numbers: percent of capacity, percent of average and percent of last year. to see any state, simply change the last two letters of the URL to that state's postal code. For example, type "WY" in capital letters instead of Idaho and you can see Jackson Lake's figures. (If that's too challenging, click here.) I'm watching Jackson very carefully since we plan to spend a lot of time there this coming summer. The key figure I see is that it's over 200% of last year. That's a VERY good thing! With the snowpack upstream, there's no doubt Jackson will fill and spill this season. Muy bueno!
Above is an overview of the entire Western US water storage status. It's essentially the same for February 1 as there's been minimal releases and no runoff.

Well, that's it for this Stirring Sunday Session. Short & Sweet even though it's a long post here on El Blog. Next week, I can already tell you what we will be covering--how to analyze snowpack data to understand both the current situation as well as runoff probabilities and even more esoteric stuff that will put you to sleep. Have a great week and the teacher will see you next Sunday! Now GO PLAY!

Blowup in the Bering

The latest Siberian Salvo is hitting the Bering Sea with some real bluster. Winds are probably blowing 45 knots and the waves are progged to be running 30 feet. Naturally, the barometer is hitting the floor, too. Ugh, if that doesn't sound cold and brutal, I don't know what does! It's hard to say if this particular system will make it down south--the jetstream is pretty wild and whippy right now. Take a look at it--it doesn't get much more fractured than this. The Climate Prediction Center is calling both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts cooler and wetter than normal. That jives with what we can see heading our way from three sectors in the Pacific.

Saturday Situation Report

Southern California is in line for some nasty weather today and tomorrow. The mountains resorts could get a foot of snow. Flash flood watches are posted throughout most of coastal SOCAL. The morning AFD from San Diego hints at another big storm in a week.

Meanwhile, down in Old Airy Zonie, the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains are in the crosshairs. The QPF progs them to get about 2.5 inches of water over the next five days. Since they're talking a snow level down to 5000 feet, that could mean over two feet of snow for the Arizona Rim Country and Apache Land. If they do get those kind of numbers, it will mean the water users will be singing "Happy Days Are Here Again." No more irrigation worries at least for another growing season.

Not much is progged for our area here in Idaho. We're coasting along in pretty good shape as far as the snowpack goes. If we get a few more stucco jobs, that wold be a real good thing. Way back before all the winter mayhem got rolling, I read a study that said the Upper Snake only needed to reach 90% to get Tater Nation through the Summer of 09. We definitely have 90 percent in the bag and everything above that is gravy.

Meanwhile, way out in the Far Eastern Pacific, it sure looks like there's some real nice water vapor blobs taking shape. Siberia continues to look good, too. There's a hint that the Southern water tap will get more active soon as well. The jet stream is getting kinky again. Be sure to take a look at it this morning.

All-in-all, it adds up to a a "sitting pretty" situation in early February. it sure beats having a gi-normous high pressure system sitting on top of us with sunny skies day after freaking day! If I had to guess, I'd reckon February will produce at least average precip. Average here is about .75 inch. If we're lucky, we'll go slightly higher and the uplands and mountains will pick up another foot of snow.

That's about it for Saturday morning. Don't forget to dress up real nice for SUnday School tomorrow! I'll have all yer number two pencils all sharpened and ready for class.