The Great Winter of 2008-2009

This blog's for you: Geek Weather!

2009-08-11T07:11:00.002-06:00

Howdy, Friends and Readers, thanks for your patience with me, the wayward weather blogger.
Gee, I haven't posted here for almost TWO months! What kind of a blogger am I anyway?
Sporadic, I guess. Well, this morning I woke up with a newfound idea--to start a blog with a genuine new title that would not restrict me to a seasonal perspective. In hindsight, it was foolish to title a blog for a single season.

However, we now have a brand new blog for ALL seasons: http://geekweather.blogspot.com
The internal title of the blog is: "We speak weather." I never could learn Spanish but I do pretty good with weather! Anyway, it will be awhile before I get all the various bells & whistles functional. Bear with me, I promise I will saddle up some weather soon.

Thanks & Cheers, jp

Water, water everywhere

2009-06-13T07:21:00.003-06:00

Well, Blog Fans, we've been getting a lot of water falling down out of the sky. The rain just keeps on coming. Here are the Idaho Falls precipitation statistics as of June 12:

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.21 0.04 0.17 0.01
MONTH TO DATE 2.62 0.52 2.10 0.12
SINCE OCT 1 9.04 8.31 0.73 7.15
SINCE JAN 1 6.41 5.64 0.77 3.83

Looks like the formatting got lost on the above numbers. The first number is self-explanatory. The second number is "normal" for that time period. The 3rd number in each line is "departure from normal" and the 4th number is the total last year for each time period.

Since January 1st, you will note that we are over 50% higher than last year's precip rec'd to date. Pretty amazing to have over 2.5 inches in a mere 13 days. WOW!

Meanwhile, the Snake River reservoirs are basically plumped up. Rumor has it there's more water in them than there has been in the last 20 years. I have no way of confirming that rumor. The best way to watch the reservoir levels is with what's called a "teacup" diagram. Click here to see it.

Whazzup with this blog?

2009-06-08T06:33:00.002-06:00

Greetings, loyal readers! I had NO idea this blog would have such an "after life." I just checked the statistics for the first time in weeks. The numbers were shocking. There were 45 visits to the blog in the week ending May 31 with 97 pages views!

Now get this:

As the blog header notes, we started this effort in early November 2008. We installed a Site Meter on February 14. Since mid-February, this blog has recorded an incredible 1,791 visits and 3,421 pages views! Shocking? You betcha.

What does this mean? Well, for starters, it means I really ought to consider bringing this blog back to life. I can't really change the address of the blog--it's fixed as the "winter0809" address. That was pretty shortsighted of me to give it such a narrowly focused name. However, I can indeed change the "working" title of the blog to something other than "The Great Winter..."

Our weather obviously continues to be very weird and I'm betting it's Mt. Redoubt's Legacy. Sooo...I am temporarily going to begin posting to this blog once again. I hope to be able to run a poll to get your opinions as to whether I should continue to post or simply leave the blog alive as a place to visit all the links at left.

Thank You for visting and ya'll come back!

(Note: After writ5ing the above, I added a simple poll, as you can see at left. It's actually a Twitter app. but it works great with blogs, too. Please give it a shot.)

Reaping Rewards of Righteous Winter!

2009-04-17T20:55:00.002-06:00

Well, I can't help it--I have to include a photo from last year's bicycle trip to The Tetons, as well as a link to a few other photos. This is why we root and cheer for Epic Winters! We get a huge snowpack and we get to enjoy it in SOOOO many different ways. Snowshoeing in the winter (and spring) bicycling in the Tetons with snow piled high beside the roads, watching huge river runoff, camping in verdant meadows, ah, the list goes on. Click here to see the few other Teton photos we were able to find tonight.

The Seam!

2009-04-17T20:15:00.002-06:00

WOW--Look at this clip from the global water vapor view! Totally awesome, is all we can say! Susun and I are heading out tomorrow for Jackson and Moose, Wyoming (AKA--The Grand Teton National Park). We've booked a room in Jackson and we're planning on a righteous two days of bicycle riding on...where else?...the Grand Teton Road!

One of the great perks of living in Idaho Falls is this: In April, the National Park Service opens the Grand Teton Road to ALL non-motorized traffic. This includes not only bicycles but also people pushing baby strollers, roller bladers, walkers, hikers, kids on their BMX bikes, you name it, it's there. Last year when we did this road on April 28 is was like a religious experience. EVERYBODY was there! Young, old and in between. The hip and fit, the old and slow, nobody cared about how they looked or how cool they were. They were just THERE and that was all that mattered. I will never forget the two Mom's who had skated their twin strollers all the way to the Jenny Lake parking lot and then plopped themselves down right in the middle of the asphalt for a picnic. NO WORRY--NO CARS! They were so happy and their babies were frolicking with no fear. It was awesome and truly unforgettable.

Well, check out the water vapor snippet--we've caught a seam in the weather. WHAA--WHOOO! This is rich stuff and it's real stuff. The temps are expected to rise almost to 60 degrees up there on the east front of the Teton Range. And, get this--NO WIND!

Yeah, we're jazzed and pumped and all those iconic words. We even bought a motel room in Jackson so we can go both days this weekend. And we even spent all day Friday "rigging" for the trip. This is really cool stuff. I hope to come back to the blog and place in a link of last year's photos. Yippie, skippie, we're stoked!

Sulphur Gas Cloud

2009-04-07T19:43:00.003-06:00

Leave it to Spaceweather once again. If you go to their website tonight, you can see an animation of a 600-mile diameter sulfur gas cloud forming off California! WHOA, Nellie, this is real and this is true! This is Mt. Redoubt in action! It's awesome!
The old adage "stay tuned" seem SO tame with Mt. Redoubt. Redoubt is awesome. It's going to change global weather and maybe even the global economy. It's huge & amazing!

Redoubt Stuff

2009-04-04T07:48:00.003-06:00

Well, Spaceweather once again "takes the cake" for the most educational and entertaining coverage of the Mt. Redoubt eruption saga. Today, there is a link to a truly great article from the folks at NASA. If that isn't enough, the NASA article links off to an incredible website maintained by somebody with WAAAAAY too much time on their hands. Luckily, their scientific mindset combines with the available time to create a "can't miss" website. You've just go to go there to check it out. I guess the explosion tally is now at 19 and counting. Redoubt is showing no signs of letting up.

Meanwhile, as you all know, the weather in the Lower 48 continues to amaze. If anything, it's getting weirder and wilder rather than tamer. A casual glance out into the crystal ball of the Pacific shows more great gobs of water vapor heading our way. The jetstream is freaked out and flipping every which way but zonal.

A very interesting sea surface temperature pattern is evolving, too. Gee, now along comes Polly Redoubt, too. What's next? A landing of Happy Aliens dropping out of the Huge Spaceship shown above? No, that's not a spaceship--it's lightning in a cloud above Redoubt at night! That volcano is putting on quite a show and, thankfully, someone is paying attention and getting us some awesome photography, too!

Leave it to Spaceweather!

2009-04-01T21:44:00.003-06:00

Hi, it's April Fool but this is NOT an April Fool post here. I came onboard to post up about the West Pacific water vapor patterns. While I was on the blog site I decided to look around at the link and so forth. I visited Spaceweather. And wouldn't you know it--they are the ones who finally have a map of the sulphur gas dispersal from Redoubt. They couldn't care less about weather impacts, they are only looking for spectacular sunsets. Whatever. Visit Spaceweather for some awesome reporting on both ash and gas. In the above GIF-clip, it's the red pixels that are sulphur gas. I tried to copy their animated GIF of this gig but I couldn't. You will have to visit Spaceweather to find it. Good luck--it really shows what's happening as redoubt huffs and puffs and spits earth guts into the sky. This is cool stuff! (Like, REALLY!)

Check the West Pacific Water vapor!

2009-04-01T21:39:00.003-06:00

WOW, Sports Fans, this is pretty impressive--it's a stacked deck heading east--ain't no way it's gonna miss the You Ess of Eh! I'm thinking the legacy of those volcanoes is really starting to pay some "add on" dividends now. When the Redoubt deposit kicks in, it sure could be a wet and cold summer season. Forest Fires? Fuggetaboutit!

BAM--Redoubt Blows

2009-03-23T06:31:00.003-06:00

Woke up to the news today, oh boy! Plume to 50,000 feet from four explosions overnight. How about this quote from one of the scientists? "There's going to be a very fine amount of it that's going to be suspended in the atmosphere for quite some time..." WOW!

Comments added March 29 at 8 pm MDT: It's been a wild ride for Redoubt so far! It's rather difficult to fgure out the actual number of eruptions as well as their duration and the extent of the cloud tops. Here's what I can glean from their website:

March 28--At least four explosions. Two tops at 45K and 50 K and two at 25K and 35K.
March 27--At least four explosions. Two tops at 50K and two tops at 40K
March 26--One really large, long duration explosion lasting more than an hour. Tops to 65K.
March 22-23--Four or five initial explosions, most tops to 50K some to 60K.

I think there's been at least 15 decent explosions with a few being really super decent. The Anchorage Airport was closed for awhile after a light dusting of volcanic ash. Alaska Airlines has supposedly scrubbed over 150 flights total since the activity began.

So far, I can't find any information on the composition, extent and dispersal of gas clouds. I'd guess that there has to be a lot of gas getting shot into the atmosphere but I really can't find any data to support my guess. Chances are Redoubt is going to continue its discharges. So far, it's been a pretty vigorous volcano.

One thing's for certain--this is not the proverbial "one shot deal." Nope, Redoubt is going about its business as a volcano and behaving quite well, actually. If it continues this behavior we're going to have some major climate changes in store for a long time to come. Our weather is already pretty danged weird. I suspect it's going to get a LOT weirder if Redoubt continues to huff and puff and blow ash and gas into the 50-60,000 portion of the atmosphere.

Your checklist

2009-03-08T07:53:00.007-06:00

Greetings, Dear Readers! This will be our last Sunday School. We are preparing to put this blog to sleep as winter is mostly over and Spring has already sprung in some parts of America. We will have a few more posts but not very many and not very frequently. So, it's going to be up to you, yourselves and you to carry on whatever you may wish from this blog. Yes, we will leave it up and running. That means you can come back any time and use the convenient links at left. This morning, I arranged them in my personal order of priority. That's what we will be talking about today in Sunday School.

Most of you have been flying in a small private airplane. As you know, the pilot goes through a rigorous checklist before taking off. For pilots, this checklist becomes a way of life, a cultural practice and, quite literally, it is the difference between life and death. Failure to follow your pre-flight checklist can mean dire consequences!

Luckily, our checklist isn't on the same level of magnitude. However, I use the analogy to encourage you to develop a "way of thinking" about looking at weather. Try to tick off the element of your own personal checklist whenever you are pondering weather patterns and trends. Try to develop this practice as a personal habit. Put the weather through its paces, so to speak. Ask yourself the same questions and probe the seemingly easy answers for alternate scenarios. Weather happens. It always has and it always will. Whether it happens that we can understand how weather happens is entirely dependent on our "way of thinking" about weather. Although no one ever has or ever will be able to predict weather with guaranteed 100% accuracy, we believe that it is possible to form and craft reasonable "best guesses" that generally reflect prevailing climate trends.

Even if no one can predict the weather, we can all have fun discussing and pondering the weather--it is one common topic that all humans everywhere share. The tools we have been using here on this page will always stand you in good stead. They are the bread and butter tools of weather forecasters everywhere. As such, your use of these tools gives you one leg up on anyone else who simply relies on the "gossip of the day" to form their weather opinions.

I am sure you will find your own personal balance in use of these tools. What works for me probably won't work for you in exactly the same way. However, I suspect we will all wind up using the same tools, even if they are ranked and ordered in slightly different ways.

My "Weather Life" always begins and ends with the jetstream. As I've said before here, I eat, sleep, live and breathe the jetstream. Even if I am not writing about it on this blog, you can be sure it is the very first thing that I pay attention to. "Where is the jetstream?" is the top question that is and always will be riveted into my brain. I would suggest that you also adopt this mantra question "Where's the jet?" as your top-of-the-checklist item.

"Where's the water vapor?" is the next topic on my checklist. To me, the jetstream and the water vapor go hand-in-hand. They are like the sides of a coin--forever joined. I like to know what is happening to the water vapor all year every year. I have been watching the US Navy's water vapor maps since I discovered them way back in 1996. Susun and I even tried to visit the Monterrey Naval Research Lab in 2002 but we were turned away by machine gun toting guards. There are many depictions of water vapor available on the internet. I like the Navy's the best. It is like an old friend, someone I can trust, someone I know and someone who won't let me down in a pinch. So I dote on the jetstream and the water vapor. When we are traveling and have perhaps only a few minutes available on a public computer in some forgotten library in some dust-ball downtown, I go to the jetstream and the water vapor. They are my anchors and the foundation of everything I thinnk about when I think of weather patterns.

I have put the map of the NWS Office locations as the Number 3 link for a specific reason. It's because the AFD's are my "goto" source of weather perspectives. AFD, as you recall, means "Area Forecast Discussion." Each shift in each NWS office prepares at least one AFD each day.
By reading the various AFD's, I have the assembled knowledge of many lifetimes of forecaster wisdom at my fingertips. Here in Idaho Falls I read the Pocatello AFD at least twice each day. When storms approach, I broaden my horizon and read the neighboring NWS Office AFD's. When a really big event is taking shape, I might read the AFD's along the Pacific Coast or as far south as Phoenix and San Diego. To find any AFD in America, simply look at the little map at left and spy out the name of the NWS Office. Thes use this search string in your Google search field: "(__office name__) NWS AFD discussion." Nine times out of ten, this will bring up the correct link to get to the latest AFD for the office of your choice. The AFD's are your Best Friends in this business. Never leave home without them!

The next items are more or less equal--the NWS Composite warning map and the five-day QPF. The warning map shows what's happening right now. The QPF shows the expected precipitation for the up to five days. They give you a great "reality check" in formation of your opinions about the weather today and in the immediate future. I rely heavily on each of them and would be lost without them.

The next two links are also pretty much equal--surface temperatures and the national high & low map. These two links work great in combination together. There are at least a ba-zillion weather maps showing daily surface temps and the ebb and flow of highs and lows. I have picked these maps because they are clea, simple and colorful. Plus, you can see them without having to endure a blizzard of online advertising so common with the commercial weather websites.

The Model Animaiton Link is interesting but can be very misleading. Use it with caution. It certainly is fun to look at but, bear in mind, it's a model. If you read the AFD's as much as I do, you will know that every forecaster who has ever lived has been fooled often by the models. The model animation will give you a medium decent good perspective on how patterns "MIGHT" shape up in the 10 day forecast period. Use a little bit of "left english" and a few grains of salt whenever you click into the model animations.

The Climate Prediction Center is a great website. I've used it for probably as many years as it's been in existence. CPC give you the broad brush strokes of upcoming climate. As such it's a lot like a work of art--the beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Keep the CPC graphics at arm's length to enjoy them the most. If you dwell too much on what the CPC has to say, you're almost certain to be disappointed. However, the CPC is a valuable tool when taken in conjunction with the other above tools at your disposal.

Spaceweather is our next link. Spaceweather is a highly entertaining website. I plan on looking at it every day from this point forward. Readers Gary W. (Lizard) suggested we use it for this blog. I was hooked immediately. Thanks, Gary! Space weather won't have the same immediate impact on our weather as a clod front sweeping ashore. However, as the upcoming sun spot cycle begins to take shape, you will begin to see some strong relationships between solar output and the behavior of the jetstream. Right now, the sun is as tame as a sleeping tiger in a zoo. But beware, when this next sun spot cycle gets rolling, it will be anything but sleeping! And the impacts on our earth weather could be profound. Keep an eye on space weather via Spaceweather--it's the best such website there is anywhere on the planet!

Most readers know how I feel about volcanoes. Heck, it three volcanoes in the Aleutians that prompted me to start this blog way back in November 2008. I first learned about the impact of volcanoes on our weather in 1977 when I read Iben Browning's "Climate and The Affairs of Man." One of my Loyal Readers and True Friends, Dave E. continues to send me the Browning Newsletter now published by Iben's daughter. If you don't realize how important volcanoes are to our planetary weather, then you need to go to reform school! Volcanoes are the single most important factor in shaping our weather over the long-term. Nothing else comes remotely close to their impact. Period. I put this link near the bottom not because it isn't important. I put it there because volcanoes don't erupt every day. They only erupt once in awhile. But their presence is ever-present and therefore you MUST pay attention to volcanoes. Visit the volcano website often. Keep an eye on their condition and what's happening around the globe. Looks at where their ash and gas goes in the atmosphere. Pay attention to what's downstream from their location. Make volcano watching a major part of your life form this day forward. Promise?

The Global SST's are very imporant, too. They don't lie. What you see is what you get. Yes, they change. But they don't change quickly. They "evolve." Watching the evolution of SST's is like watching a very slow waltz. It's enchanting and captivating. The key thing to watch for in the SST's is large areas of hot or cold water. The larger and the more extreme, the more impact it is likely to have on weather. If you have time and inclination, I suggest you become conversant in all of the alhabet soup phases of the oceans. The oceans are alive. They are not static bodies of water just sitting there. Oceans are doing stuff all the time. They are conducting "ocean business" and their business affects our business. Big time! The more you learn abou tthe oceans' impact on weather, the happier you will be. Trust me, time spent sutdying oceans is time well spent. However, if you have no time to spend studying oceans, at least watch the SST's--they are kind of like the financial reports of a business. Lots of activity had to happen for a business to be able to complile and file a financial report. Ditto with oceans--lots of "stuff" had to happen in the business of being an ocean for the SST's to rise or fall. You won't really know what went on behind the scenes but at least you get to see the "reports." Never forget to pay attention to SST's. The day you do is the day you will get blindsided!

Below the SST link is the buoy link. This is a "reality check" link. When you see a big storm sweeping ashore, you can check its passport by going out to a buoy anchored in the line of fire. Buoys wil tell you if the sea is really getting its anatomy kicked. Sometimes, storms appear to be full of fury but when you check the buoy data, you will see it's all hype and tease. Buoys don't lie!

Finally, we come to the SNOTEL website and it's companion the USGS real time streamflow gateway. As you know, I refer often to the USGS data. However, I just added this link today for your convenience. Snow and water are the measurable output of storms. They are the "bottom line," so to speak. A storm can be all fuss and bluster but it might not really yield anything of substance. The SNOTEL and streamflow websites will tell you "the rest of the story," as the late Paul Harvey would say. Going to those websites reminds me of a guy I saw in the Customer Service line at a grocery store this week. You could look at the guy and know he had some low rent, minimum wage job. He was clutching his weekly paycheck and he was waiting in line to cash it. His clothes were dirty for a hard day's work and his hands showed the price he paid to hold that paycheck. I couldn't see the eact amount but I could spy it was a small check. I watch him smile when he looked at that check and I felt his pride in himself for a week's worth of hard work. The line was long and slow, so he had time to glance often as his check. Each time as he did, many thoughts flowed through my mind. I realized that's what we do when we look at the SNOTEL's and the streamflows. We're proud of our bottom line--we're proud we have these gifts from our weather--we're proud to have weathered our storms and we're danged happy we're standing in line to cash our check! We're looking for some good times tonight!

Well, there you have it. Don't spend it all in one place--save some for tomorrow, too. I wish you well in your study of our weather. I know this blog will be a great place to visit even if there are no regular posts spewing forth from the blog author. I'm certain that it will be useful to you for a long time to come. I've had a great time writing in during these last 120 days. yes, it started November 8 and today is March 8, 120 days to the whisker! Thanks for being my Loyal Readers. Have a great day and Happy Trails! Cheers from John P.

The Saturday Shuffle

2009-03-07T08:26:00.003-07:00

Greetings, Dear Readers! Only two more weeks until the first day of Spring! This particular post will be a grab bag of various topics--nothing really interesting or important to discuss this morning.

Tomorrow's Sunday School will be the same lesson planned last week. We want to do a review session for you. We will be winding down this blog very soon and we want to make sure that you are properly prepared in all of the tips and tricks for using the links at left to improvise your own weather prognostications. This blog will be going into hibernation on the Vernal Equinox--afterall, the blog is about WINTER--not SPRING!

While reviewing all of our links at left, I was intrigued by the massive area of warm surface temps in the midwest and east. Gee, wasn't it barely a week ago that they were shivering and getting pounded? Also, the QPF back there is pretty substantial. Things are pretty quiet on the Western Front. The far Pac NW is getting some action and perhaps the Idaho Panhandle, too. Otherwise, it's pretty bland.

The CPC people say that California will have above normal precip during the next 30 days. I'd reckon that's a reasonable guess judging from the persistent Pacific patterns prevailing out yonder.

Spaceweather is quite interesting today--check it out. There's an awesome photo of Saturn. Saturn is at perigee this weekend and also at opposition to the Sun. That's kind of a big deal in the astro circles. Actually, it might even be a big deal in the world financial circles, too, but that's another story beyond the scope of this blog. Whatever the case, be sure to check out the pretty pictures of Saturn on the Spaceweather website.

I roamed 'round the SNOTEL site looking at the percent-average of various California rivers. They sure look like they are in good shape, all things considered. Meanwhile, Arizona rivers and reservoirs are in REALLY good shape. Roosevelt Lake is 100% full and there's over 2000 cfs coming into the lake. That means it's spilling at least 2,000 cfs! Over in New Mexico most of the state is under a red flag warning. Oddly, the red flag warning ends at the Arizona line. I wonder how that works? Maybe the wind knows when it enters New Mexico that it's supposed to pick up the pace.

The Upper Snake River is in good shape and Jackson Lake should fill and spill this year. Tater Nation will be happy about that.

Well, that's about all there is to report weatherwise today. Tomorrow's discussion will be very generic in scope--just a review of how to use the tools we have assembled on this website. It's been a lot of fun writing this Winter 0809 blog. Maybe next year we will go it again. Who knows? Have a great day and GO PLAY!

Ah, HA! What were we saying?

2009-03-05T19:42:00.006-07:00

Hey, Dear Readers, I have been taking a break from the Winter 0809 blog. Somehow, reality got real distorted over in California and I just decided to "chuck it" for a well-deserved break. It's Thursday night and so I decided to once again come back and "tune in" to my blog.
Lo and behold, I just found this snippet online:

"Heavy snowfall brought a dramatic increase to the Sierra snowpack, which has lagged significantly below average levels this season. As much snow as normally falls in the Tahoe-Truckee area during the entire month of March fell during its first three days, experts said.

On Wednesday, the Truckee River and Lake Tahoe Basin's snowpacks were measured at 87 percent of average for the date, up from 79 percent Tuesday morning and the lower 70s a week ago.

"I looked at those numbers two or three times this morning and just said, 'Wow,'" said Dan Greenlee, a hydrologist with the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service.

"It was a phenomenal storm," Greenlee said. "We still need some more, but it's definitely an improvement."

The storm dumped enough precipitation into Lake Tahoe in three days to raise its water level nearly 4 inches, increasing Tahoe's water storage by about 38,000 acre-feet, Greenlee said. That's more than 12 billion gallons."

Well, as you might expect, this type of stuff gets me pretty excited. I guess I was "right" afterall. Once that Muscle Bound Guy, Arni What's-His-Name, said they were in a statewide drought, well, I guess I kinda lost interest. Even though I knew it wasn't really "so," that type of political hype really just annoyed me enough to take a break from this weather blog. Afterall, I also write blogs about volunteers, food shopping and trading Zions Bank stock. I don't need to hang out here. So I took a break.

It's so nice to come back from my break and see that Lake Tahoe gained 12 billion gallons from the last storm. That really kind of validates things like the QPF graphics and the jetstream and the Navy water vapor maps and all of that other esoteric stuff we watch, doesn't it? Geeze!

Well, I am going to run along now--this was just a quick visit back to the Winter 0809 blog--we will add more insights tomorrow. In the meantime, I suggest readers of this blog enjoy a little moment of self-congratulations. We all saw this coming and we should be proud of ourselves. Thank you for your support.

Tuesday thoughts

2009-03-03T19:43:00.004-07:00

Greetings, Dear Readers! I have posted the latest 5-day QPF forecast above. You can see that California once again is getting all the action. I clicked around through the NWS National Warning map graphic and I found this snippet: "THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 FEET TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE 5500 FOOT ELEVATION." That's pretty cool language!

We've been having various varieties of rain in Idaho Falls today. It's been like a whole progression of all the types of rain. None of them have been hard rain--just different varieties. It's been fun. We've had rainbows, too. It was clear at lunch and Susun and I ate outside on the patio of a fancy restaurant. It felt hot. But then the weather changed later in the afternoon and it was too cold and windy to go feed the geese on the greenbelt near the Falls. Go figure!

By the way, if you haven't been over to Spaceweather.Com, you really ought to make a visit tonight. There's a Solar Prominence that's pretty dazzling right now. I won't bore you with the details. Just go visit Spaceweather's link in the left column and see for yourself. be sure to click through the various links--it's impressive!

The Snake River here went ice free at the Falls today. All the local tongues were wagging about it. People pay more attention sometimes that I tend to give them credit for. Now that I can see actual real open water I am trying to think of a way to pry our frozen canoe out of the glacier beside the garage and get it on the water. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

Well, there's lots of weather to enjoy, so ENJOY IT!

Gravity Wave? Who knew?

2009-03-03T06:56:00.004-07:00

Perhaps you have been as intrigued as I have been by media coverage of The Big Winter Storm back east. As you might expect, I have been lapping up the various storm stories like a purring kitten in front of the warm bowl of milk.

This morning the headline in one of the stories immediately caught my bleary eyes: The Philadelphia Inquirer's headline blared: "Gravity Wave: powered late season snowstorm. Gravity Wave? Gee, I guess I have fallen behind in the Lingo Wars or somehow dropped off the Nomenclature Wagon or something. Gravity Waves? Huh?

Well, guess what? Gravity waves are totally real you can read all about them, too.First, click here for the Philly story. Naturally, I immediately went to Wikipedia in hopes that awesome online tome would have something about gravity waves.Sure enough, here is the Wiki entry on the phenomena.Once at Wiki you will find this really impressive piece of "math art" adorning the Wiki page. If this doesn't make you want to drink more coffee, I sure don't know what will! Who knew? (Click the graphic for a larger one.)

Quite the comparison!

2009-03-02T20:03:00.003-07:00

I'm posting up the afternoon surface temp map. It's quite the comparison. If you look at the overnight temps below and then this map, you can clearly see the massive invasion of warm temps around a huge area of the Western United States! If this isn't the first harbinger of spring, I really don't know what is!

A rain event

2009-03-02T07:16:00.003-07:00

Don't ya love those pretty colors? Well, they do tell a story. Take a Big Picture look at the advance of warmer temps coming in from west-to-east all up and down the Pacific Coastline. These are generally the overnight temps depicted here. Those warmer temps are progged to march right into Eastern Idaho today, tonight and tomorrow. Since they will be accompanied with ample moisture, we are looking at a rain event taking shape here.

So far, it doesn't appear to be enough rain to raise the flood flags, but it's sure going to be interesting to see how it shapes up and progresses through the region.
I'd suspect this event will put a serious dent in the low elevation snow and usher in the infamous "Mud Season" in one fell swoop. I put this surface temp graphic up here this morning because I think it's the key indicator for the next couple of days. Keep an eye on the progression and evolution of surface temps to get a good idea how the Intermountain West will be affected by the incoming Pacific precipitation.

East Coast water discussion

2009-03-01T19:04:00.004-07:00

First, let's dispel some media myths that are running rampant tonight. New England is NOT going to get buried in snow! No, it's really not. Yes, it's going to have a nice storm. As you can see from the above graphic, some people in some places are going to get really stuccoed with more than a foot. But that's NOT all of New England. I've beenreading some pretty hysterical media reports tonight. You'd think the Statue of Liberty was going to get covered to her eyeballs! As usual, it's typical media hype going on here. Tomorrow, I am sure CNN will be filled with the obligatory blizzard scenes, people stuck in drifts higher than their house, all the usual suspects. But, honest, it's NOT all of New England, just a lucky few!OK, meanwhile, let's take a look at Polly Pacific. I drew a nice happy face on her earlier today. As you can see, there is an epic fetch and reach to the water vapor tracks right now. It almost looks as if a giant hand is dipping water from the Subtropical region and flinging it at North America. Couple this Subtropical tap with the typical Siberian water tap and you've really got a recipe for some storm action!

I went back and leafed through all of the archived Navy water vapor maps and it sure does look to me like what's hitting New England tonight had its pedigree in the deep tropics. I think it came up on what I've been calling "The Southern Track." If so, this particular storm promises to raise some eyebrows for its timing and intensity. This is March 1st, afterall!

If you spend some time comparing the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, East Pacific and Atlantic water vapor shots on the Navy website, I think that you will become at least as curious as I am about whazzup out there. Idaho seems to be perpetually on the outside looking in lately but some other parts of our landscape are getting stuccoed pretty good!

Once again, I hark back to that "crescendo theory." I keep getting the distinct feelings that this winter really, really wants to go out with guns firing full force in one giant blaze of epic glory! If this current storm is a precursor to that scenario, we could be in for some real memorable Legacy Storms!

And Along Came Polly Pacific

2009-03-01T09:17:00.004-07:00

What can you say about people who play with their food....and weather, too? Maybe they have too much time on their hands? Well, whatever, I couldn't resist on this one. It was crying out for doodling. Photoshop it ain't. We are running late this Sunday morning so Sunday School is also off to a tardy start. Three demerits to the teacher--he's been playing with his food and weather again! (NEWS FLASH--Sunday School has been canceled! That's right, recess came early and now you can all GO PLAY!)

National Snow Cover

2009-02-28T08:06:00.002-07:00

Just an FYI. Here's today's Intellicast national snow cover map. And here's the link to find it yourself should the urge ever arise.

Arctic Circle has all the fun!

2009-02-28T07:49:00.003-07:00

Those lucky (but frozen) puppies up in the Arctic Circle latitudes have all the fun! Being as it's a Saturday morning, I decided to roam over to Spaceweather.Com and see whazzup. They have some nice aurora photos there such as the one above. The guy who took the one above is Aleksander Chernucho,Mt. Khibiny, Kolyskia peninsula, Russia. The photo was taken yesterday when it was 27FEB here and 28 FEB there. Aleksander has a really cool photo album on a Russian website. It's all in Russian language but the photos speak a universal language and you don't need to know Russian to enjoy them. Note the little slider bar at the top of his album. Play with it and you automatically resize the pictures. COOL!

Well, the Aurora doesn't really have anything whatsoever to do with our North American weather. However, I thought it would be nice to have a "change of pace," so to speak, and put something purely fun and entertaining up on El Blog today.

As winter is fast nearing an end, I think tomorrow's Sunday School will be a most excellent time to begin a review in preparation for your semester final exam. So come prepared to think and learn. Okie, dokie? Have a fun day. You may go play now.

NORCAL drought is history

2009-02-27T07:41:00.003-07:00

(See note at end of post.) The February 19 drought monitor already showed NORCAL "going green" again. That's a HUGE improvement from previous drought forecasts. Well, that was more than a week ago. Now, lookie here, the "hazards assessment" shows NORCAL is right back in the crosshairs for incoming Pacific water bombs. Hum...I am going out on a big limb once again and making a statement: The NORCAL Drought is over. It's history. Bambi and Smokey and all the little forest creatures can rest easy this summer--their home isn't going to burn to the ground. Nope, the heat's off up in NORCAL. Whew, that's huge!

Meanwhile, of course, SOCAL can't buy a break. So, that's where we would expect all the dry season fires to be centered once again. But at least the top half of The Golden State is Okie Dokie for 2009. Congratulations, NORCAL!

Note added 28FEB: Arnie What's-His-Name, the California Guv, came out yesterday and declared a statewide drought disaster or emergency or something like that. The article I read says things are 57% of normal. Well, I guess no one's checked the SNOTEL's today as they are all significantly above 57%. The Klamath in NORCAL is running 90% of normal. That's ain't great but that ain't no drought either! When you add in the progged precip upcoming in the next five days, there's no doubt it will be at or above 100% up there. Yes, SOCAL is hurting but NORCAL is out of the woods. Iguess it's politically more expedient to scare the begeebers out of EVERYBODY rather than telling it like it is.

Redoubt Dissected!

2009-02-26T20:32:00.005-07:00

Well, folks, this is what a volcanic cone looks like when it gets WAAAY too much attention! People with a heck of a lot of time on their hands find things like "ice pistons" and "slurry tracks." Heck, I thought Ice Pistons was a dormant basketball team! And are Slurry Tracks what happens when you drink to much wine and try to use your iPod? Well, we're having fun with Redoubt, no doubt. Hey, meanwhile, the AVO Crowd has bumped Cleveland to Code Yellow. That's NOT Mellow Yellow--Yellow means something is happening that we need to pay attention to. I clicked through every link I could find but, so far, I haven't found out why Cleveland is now Code Yellow. Cleveland could be a nice little chimney, puffing out periodic doses of Sulfuric Acid into the Arctic Skies. Maybe Ol' Man Winter just doesn't want to end his gig this year! Click here to visit AVO.

Alaskan Action

2009-02-26T06:58:00.005-07:00

I was roaming around looking for a good rendition of the new addition to the sidebar--NWS Offices nationwide. I happened to stumble into the latest Alaskan warning map. Gee, it's a colorful little bugger! So, I clicked off to see whazzup in The Last Frontier, as they like to call themselves. Lots of blizzard warnings, gales, and storms of various varieties. It's kind of interesting, actually. Click here to go to the summary page and then just scroll down and skim all the fun nomenclature. NOTE: We just put a text narrative at the very bottom of this blog explaining how to capture and process a screen shot like the one above. You might enjoy reading it.

Site Stats

2009-02-26T06:41:00.005-07:00

A couple of weeks ago I decided to put a "site monitor" on this blog. I wanted to know if people were really reading the blog. Once in awhile, I get a comment but not very often, as you know. So, I wanted to know if I was writing into a vacuum. The last two weeks of statistics tell me that this blog has a fairly regular readership. It looks like a couple of dozen readers visit the blog each day. That's really cool!
THANK YOU, Dear Readers, your visits are appreciated. Your visits also help provide some inspiration to keep improving the sidebar on this blog to provide you with a "one-stop-shopping" experience for your "big picture" weather prognostication needs.

The stats package I chose comes highly recommended. It's called Site Meter and you can click here to review its overall operation. Here are the stats logged since I installed the monitoring scripts:

Visits

Total .......................... 235
Average per Day ................. 23
Average Visit Length .......... 1:30
This Week ...................... 158

Page Views

Total .......................... 523
Average per Day ................. 40
Average per Visit .............. 1.8
This Week ...................... 281

Pretty impressive water vapor!

2009-02-25T18:27:00.003-07:00

Okie, dokie, Weather Fans,let's take a look at the Northern Hemisphere water vapor patterns, courtesy of the US Navy. Gee, something tells me there's a heap o' water heading our way! All of the water taps appear to be working together right now. In football, I think they call this "piling on!" Right now, I have no clue how and where all this stuff is going to smack our continent. But its a pretty safe bet that somebody, someplace is going to get smacked real hard by this stuff. Definitely keep an eye on the jetstream, run those model simulations at least twice a day and rivet your attention to the march of the water vapor across the Pacific.
Some years it seems like Winter just has to end with a GIANT crescendo--kind of like one of those awesome epic symphonies that bring you right up out of your seat as every instrument builds to a nerve-pulsing finale. I am beginning to wonder if this winter is going to be what I like to call a Crescendo Winter. If so, batten your barn, buckle up your babies and hunker down, Nellie!

Some Late February Precip

2009-02-23T06:52:00.013-07:00

The Snake River Plain is in line for a wee little bit of precip today. Those "pointy thing" (AKA: the Tetons) to our East will probably get some nice powder out of the deal. The Navy's water vapor maps show a lot of moisture boogie-ing across the Pacific. The QPF people show some decent accumulations progged over the next five days. One of our Official Blog Followers is in the crosshairs of that QPF in Brookings, Oregon. He left a great comment about how the storm impacted their location. Please read it below. Thanks, Dean-O, we sure appreciate it a LOT! Keep 'em coming! March continues to show hopeful signs of being a Precip Producer. We are now less than one month away from the official first day of Spring. Generally speaking, big winter storms decline in frequency and intensity after the Vernal Equinox. From that point forward, Old Sol is on a fast track to keep its appointment with the Summer Solstice a mere 90 days away. Enjoy these storms while you can--times, they are a changin'!

Sunday School Blow Up!

2009-02-22T08:48:00.009-07:00

Greetings and welcome once again to another thrilling session of Sunday School! Today we're going to talk volcanoes. We'd like to give you a firm, fundamental footing on this volatile topic. Volcanic eruptions arguably have more of an impact on our climate than any other single factor. I say "arguably" because some people disagree with that theory. That's a political topic we won't cover in Sunday School today. The study of volcanoes could easily take over your entire life. Some geologists specialize int the study of volcanoes. For our purposes today, you simply need a good grasp on how to review volcano facts and know where to go to keep an eye on evolving volcanic activity. Afterall, this is Sunday School and we have recess coming up soon!

By far the easiest place to learn about volcanoes is Wikipedia. This amazing online resource has most everything an armchair layman would ever want to know about volcanoes. Click here to start your volcano refresher. You will see many links on this "gateway" page. If you want to see just how destructive volcanoes have been during recorded history, go to this link. The Big Grand Daddy of recent volcanoes was Krakatoa. The old funky drawing on this page shows Krakatoa before it disintegrated. There's a famous year in American History called "The Year Without A Summer." It's widely believed that this epic time period was caused by volcanic activity. You can click here to read about "The Year Without A Summer." Obviously, there's enough links from those Wikipedia pages for you to get involved in hours and hours of self-study. I'd recommend that you fully acquaint yourself with all of the Wiki resources on volcanoes. If you are serious about watching weather, you really need to be very well grounded in the science of volcanic activity. You also need to know how to track current volcanic activity.

Let's move into the tracking phase, shall we? As you might expect the US Geological Survey is the world leader in tracking volcanic activity. Click here to go to their gateway website. Be sure to bookmark that website. I think I will put it in the left hand column here, too. Check in on that website often--make it a regular habit, just like watching the jetstream. It's important to note that the mainstream media (that's defined as the media that's obsessed with celebrities and banal fluff) won't alert you to volcanic activity unless it's a huge event. In the meantime, minor volcanic activity can have a big impact on weather. For example, the Aleutian eruptions last summer received scant media coverage because the media was focused on the Obama-McCain-Palin-Biden quadrangle and who cared about some no-name volcano? However, those 3 volcanoes spewed enough stuff into the correct latitudes to really create a notable winter, a winter that generated all sorts of subsequent "media events."

Let's not rag on the media. Let's focus on improving your volcano-watcher skills. One of the largest concentrations of active volcanoes on earth is located on the Kamchatka Peninsula. As Gov. Winky Palin might say, "You can almost see it from Alaska." In any given year, the Kamchatka volcanoes have had and are capable of having an affect on our climate. It's a trifle difficult keeping track of Kamchatka volcanoes because of the language barrier. The graphic on this page shows just how many volcanoes are clustered on Kamchatka. Pretty impressive, eh? Click here to read about KVERT. KVERT is the Russian equivalent of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Theoretically, the USGS and AVO work hand-in-hand with KVERT. One hopes that such cooperative efforts continue and remain productive and friendly. Luckily, satellite technology really unveils the activity and impacts of volcanoes in this day and age.
There are many more ways to track volcanic activity. However, let's not ramble too much farther here today--it's now Recess Time! Thanks for attending Sunday School this week. Now GO PLAY!

Redoubt update

2009-02-22T08:28:00.006-07:00

Alaska's Mount Redoubt has been pretty quiet the past few days. The above graphics are the seismic data. You can see how the shaking and rumbling has taped off recently and is nice and tame. The AVO--that's Alaska Volcano Observatory--still feels like Redoubt is a likely candidate to erupt within days or weeks. You can visit their special redoubt website and read about their "scenarios" for Redoubt. They feel a repeat of the 1989-90 episode is most likely. Click here to visit that page. Remember, click the small images to see bigger ones.

Some brief thoughts

2009-02-20T18:53:00.003-07:00

As you can see from the above latest QPF graphic, NORCAL is in line for some impressive new precip--over 5 inches if the weather wonks are correct. Idaho is once again on the outside looking in.

I'm taking a break from posting here on the Winter0809 Blog until Sunday. We're going to a Dog Sled Derby about an hour north of here tomorrow. Hopefully, I will dream up something for Sunday School.

In the meantime, I'd suggest you take a look at the jetstream--it's very fractured and contorted and weird looking. Likewise, seek out the global water views--Asian continues to package and ship some impressive globs of water vapor. Also, please glance at the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts on the CPC link. They are both showing above normal precip. In other words, you've all learned how this drill works---do you own forecasting now!

And, just for grins, Google up Mount Redoubt and keep an eye on it, too. Heck, if you do all that stuff, who needs me to write anything here anyway?

Have a great evening and a wonderful Saturday--we will see you Sunday! Cheers, JP

Our Sun.

2009-02-17T21:10:00.002-07:00

We are smack in the middle of transition between two Sunspot Cycles. Right now the solar disk is abnormally quiet. "Sun watchers" are getting antsy. No one knows when the sun will switch gears and start exhibiting signs of the new cycle. In the meantime, all eyes are on the sun. ANYTHING that happens on the solar disk is subject of much discussion. And so it is today with this activity. It may not be the stuff of solar storms. It may not be capable of producing a brilliant aurora. But it sure is fun to see.

Why are WE watching the sun, anyway? Well, Bubba, here's the bottom line: when all is said and done, Ol' Sol is our "weather maker." What happens on the sun makes its way to earth and affects our weather. You can take those words to the bank! That's why we watch the solar disk every day of the year, at least when we can get to the internet.

As the sun goes, so goes earth!

Just how is Alaska, anyway?

2009-02-16T19:45:00.006-07:00

I haven't had time to check in on Alaska lately. I've assumed it's cold up there. I noticed on the NWS Warning composite that the North Slope is under a Blizzard Warning. So I clicked off and, sure enough, it's gonna be your typical way-be-below zero temps with fierce winds and lots of snow. Hum...sounds intense! Meanwhile I clicked off into the Bering Sea and, well, yeah, 50 knot winds, 20+ foot waves.
It's not so bad in the lower Alaskan latitudes--just a normal winter. However, it's a good idea to keep an eye on Alaska. If it gets tropical up there, I'd guess the affects of the summer volcano ash and gas are history. It looks like Ol' Man Winter has Northern Alaska by the throat right now. Cold. Snow. Wind. High Seas. All the usual suspects.

It all depends...

2009-02-16T08:15:00.008-07:00

Whether our weather will continue this pattern into March depends on the jetstream and the water vapor supply. Right now, it looks good. As you can see, I've annotated today's jetstream to show the Northern Hemisphere symmetry. Remember that "wagon wheel" analogy I used quite some time ago? Well, this is as symmetrical as the wagon wheel spokes get! The jetstream is exhibiting some real nice behavior in this graphic. Meanwhile, the water vapor production (see below)continues to look good. Siberia is very generous to us. That on-again, off-again subtropical tap shows promise as well.

As you may recall, we started this blog many moons ago on the premise that the Summer 2008 Aleutian volcanic eruptions were going to distort our Northern Hemisphere winter weather patterns. I think we can all safely agree that those patterns have helped produce a real memorable winter. Whether it was due to the volcanic factor will be the topic of much discussion as the climatological postmortems are rolled out in the months ahead.Let's assume for a minute that the volcanic factor was, indeed, at the root level of this winter's interesting weather. If so, the question becomes: "Have those volcanic factors diminished?" The answer would be "Probably." It takes many months for the gas and ash to disperse enough to lessen its impact on deflecting solar energy back into space. However, I'd be inclined to wager there's enough of it left to eek out another 4-6 weeks of solar energy disruption in the far northern latitudes. Maybe less, maybe more. So, if we carry that line of speculation forward, I'm beginning to be inclined to think that March could be a Pretty Good Precipitation Producer. Maybe I should coin an acronym for that--PGPP.

The wild card in this deck remains Mt. Redoubt. So far, it's been a real dud--a little steam here, a little rumble there but nothing remotely resembling the early dire warnings issued by the Chicken Little Volcano Heads. But you never know--a volcano has its own clock that's ticking its own time. We could wake up one morning to a major motion picture on the CNN Headline News. There could be ash and gas getting shot 40-50-60,000 feet into the polar latitudes.

I can tell you one thing pretty much for sure. If Redoubt blows it's top, there's no doubt we're in for a cold, wet spring and probably a cold wet early summer as well. That's where the wild card lies.

When's the party over?

2009-02-16T07:45:00.007-07:00

The screen shot on the right is the overall QPF for the next five days. The left shot is the current NWS warning composite as of Monday morning. That Winter Storm Warning coloration pretty much covers most of the Sierra Mountains. During the next five days, the same area is progged to get almost 3 inches of precip. Meanwhile, the 8-14 forecast shows above normal precip for a wide area of the West.

Our next post will (above) will take a look at the water vapor patterns and the jetstream. The question arising now is "when's the party over?" No pattern persists forever. The first day of Spring is less than five weeks away. In the past few years, the party's ended right about this time of year. In the Good Ol' Daze, March could be a real weather & water producer. Will the good times keep rolling right into March? Fourteen days puts us into early March!

Tell it like it is!

2009-02-15T20:33:00.005-07:00

Hey, those Reno weather wonks are gettin' some ATTITUDE! Check this snippet from the 7:26 pm 15FEB AFD:

"NICE WARM CONVEYOR SHOWING UP ON 290-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST TO TAHOE/LASSEN. AS FAR AS MODELS GO...HAVE TOSSED THE NAM IN THE TRASH FOR THIS STORM. IT HAS NOT HANDLED THE POSITION OF THE BAND WELL AT ALL SINCE FRIDAY AND WAS EVEN DRY FOR TAHOE UNTIL 21Z TODAY?!?!?!

Yeah, "TOSSED THE NAM IN THE TRASH!" Right ON, Bro! Sometimes these NWS people pay WAY too much attention to their models. They wring their hands and agonize about what the models "mean." It grows old and annoying sometimes. It's refreshing to read how somebody in Reno simply said, "Throw the SOB in the TRASH!" Yeah, that's my kinda attitude!

Lately, Reno gets my vote as the "GOTO" place for an exciting AFD. They will probably soon get called on the "Climo Carpet" for all their enthusiasm and straight talk. But, hey, let's enjoy it while we can.

Spaceweather

2009-02-15T20:21:00.002-07:00

The photo above is just a reminder to visit Spaceweather often. Don't forget! That website simply ROX~!

Sunday School has Visual Aids!

2009-02-15T08:23:00.008-07:00

Hey, there, Class, Thanks for showing up for Sunday School this morning! As promised last week, we're going to walk you through the new-fangled NRCS method for finding out the "percent of average" of any given watershed snowpack. It used to be pretty simple. But you know the gubmint motto--"if it ain't broke, change it!" The new method is pretty good but I miss the old graphs-at-a-glance. This one's OK and I guess I will get used to it. Maybe you will, too. Whatever the case may be we gotta "dance with the one that brung us" and, in this case, that means the good ol' NRCS.
Ok, this Sunday School is gonna be real short and, hopefully, sweet. Why? Well, it's bright and sunny outside and I am itching to git outdoors and "get a life." That's why!

You begin this process by clicking on the NRCS link in the left hand column. By now, you should now that drill. Then you will have to follow some steps that aren't really too complicated. However, there's enough steps that you can get lost and take a wrong turn. That's why I made these graphics below. Just follow the steps and tailor your final approach for whatever state-of-mind suits you and then you're cleared for landing on Runway 0809! Have a great day. Study your Visual Aids, practice a little bit and then GO PLAY!

PS--I forgot to mention that one nice thing about the new format is that you can get the "percent average" for any given day, including today, February 15!!! That's actually pretty cool.

More focus on California

2009-02-14T20:26:00.009-07:00

Here is some really strongly worded language:

"California is facing the most significant water crisis in its history. After experiencing two years of drought and the driest spring in recorded history, water reserves are extremely low. With the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ecosystem near collapse, court-ordered restrictions on water deliveries from the Delta have reduced supplies from the state's two largest water systems by twenty to thirty percent.

Drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin and a Sierra snowpack that is now dangerously unreliable due to global climate change, is leaving many communities throughout California facing mandatory restrictions on water use and/or rising water bills. If the drought continues into next year, the results could be catastrophic to our economy." Go to the website where we found this snippet.

The above map linked from the Climate Prediction Centers says it all--NORCAL is at ground zero of a genuine water crisis. Right now, tonight, even as we write this blog post, NORCAL might just be getting a "get out of jail" pass and California might dodge an intergalactic bullet. NORCAL is getting plastered tonight.

It's awesome, it's epic and it's great!

Above you see the water vapor blanketing the most hard hit part of drought stricken California. Below, you see a screen shot of the next few days of accumulated precipitation this area. At this point in time, it really can't get a whole lot better than this!

Da BUOY

2009-02-14T20:05:00.005-07:00

We wish to encourage our Dear Readers to check "Da BUOY!" NOAA and their cohorts run a first class buoy operation spread all over the far flung ocean surface. When you see something happening on a Navy water vapor, run along and check Da BUOY!

It sure looks like that big Wadzilla up north is huffing and puffing its way into a happening deal. Some of the winds up there early this morning were yawners and now they are gusting to 40+ knots. The wave heights haven't picked up too much, maybe 10-13 feet but the winds auger for an increase in the waves, too.

With the internet and satellite technology we have now, there's no excuse for not beaming into every little nook and cranny that you can. Ocean buoys are a priceless resource. Check 'em out!

Wild West Jet

2009-02-14T07:11:00.006-07:00

Today's jetstream diagram reminds me of either rodeo or some scene from a 1950's black and white Western shoot-'em-up. It's rip snortin' and rarin' to go! It's been quite a long time since I've seen anything this shredded in the jetstream. Heck, it might even be Jetstream Triage! Where do you look first to analyze and "treat" the situation?
Meanwhile, a glance at the water vapor situation this morning says that we're still on tap for a few more waves of water to wash ashore. The Western Pacific shows that is is attempting to reconnect its firehose the Phillipino hydrant. If we get that subtropical connection going again, WHAA--WHOOO!!!!

NORCAL is getting smacked hard as we write this, high winds, rain, snow, the whole buffet of winter jingo and major lingo. Ironically, it's NORCAL that shows up the "reddest" in gubmint's drought diagram. This type of action almost certainly will alleviate the severity of that situation.

To see it unfold, if you're interested in such stuff on a lazy Saturday morning, here's what I would recommend. First, click on the National warning map at left. Then click into one of the little colored areas up in NORCAL. Have fun reading about all the mayhem. Then start Googling various community newspapers and TV stations in that region. That should keep you entertained at least until lunch time.

A moment of truth

2009-02-12T20:25:00.010-07:00

All eyes and hopes are on California right now. Californians might not know or realize it but lots of humans elsewhere are praying that they pull through the epic drought that they are facing. Their best odds are coming up in this next pulse and parade of storms.

I was roaming the various AFD's this evening and I found a rare bit of personal emotion being expressed. Normally, the NWS weather wonks keep their personal feelings out of their discussions. It's all "cut and dried" techno talk.

This snippet came out of Reno's afternoon AFD. You can almost sense the helplessness and near hopelessness in these words, as well as a sense of prayer, too. Maybe I am reading too much into a few scant words. I don't think so.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z RUNS...AND 12Z EURO ARE ALSO TRENDING SLOWER AND A BIT DRIER. EVEN WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...1-2 FEET OF SNOW FOR THE SIERRA STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT NOT THE 2-4 FEET INITIAL INDICATIONS SHOWED. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE IF THE LOW CUTS OFF ENOUGH THAT WE DONT GET THAT MUCH AT ALL. RIGHT NOW...MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE 12Z EURO/18Z GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. GIVEN THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS GONE...ALMOST EXPECTING THAT I AM STILL TOO WET. I HOPE I AM NOT. WALLMANN Check out Buoy 46002--Gusting to 39 knots--waves to 20 feet! YES!

Precip perks up

2009-02-12T20:15:00.005-07:00

Well, this graphic is pretty self-explanatory. If you've been watching what we've been posting, you can quickly note the quantum leap in precip in this graphic. It's huge--almost Reichter Scale!
Wow--are the Rain and Snow Gods being "nice" to California or what?

It's been a long time since we've seen California in the "red zone" of a precip event. Ignore the five inch area for a moment and look inland in the Northern Sierra and you're seeing 4.0-4.6 inches of precip. If the dynamics are correct that could translate to 3-4 feet of SNOW! That's HUGE!

GFS animation + Accuweather drought story

2009-02-11T18:36:00.006-07:00

We all read a lot about the models that the NWS Staff uses to make their forecasts. One of the primary models is the GFS. Click here to see it's progression of storms hitting California. It's real impressive!
Well, well, well! I went to Accuweather tonight simply to type in the Idaho Falls Zip Code to get tomorrow's forecast. Lo and behold, they posted a story about 7 pm tonight saying that the California drought might be coming to an end! Hey, it's great to have somebody like Accuweather saying this. YAAA-HOOO, I don't feel like the Lone Ranger any more. (The link posted yesterday no longer works.) I snagged one of their photos because I like the way it looks. Kinda art deco in a retro-lineal sort of way, eh?

All ashore!

2009-02-11T06:24:00.006-07:00

Here are the twin Northern Hemisphere views courtesy of the US Navy for Wednesday morning. I don't have time to draw little funky lines on them today. I wanted you to see them without having to surf around the Navy website. Also, I wanted to archive them for future reference. Note the CPC's 6-10 day forecast below. (Click on the little one to see the big one.) It has California right smack in the crosshairs of all the incoming action from El Pacifico. I am already beginning to wonder if these great "gifts of the sea" might not change around the urgent drought dynamic facing California. We're talking a lot of water progged for California. We're talking rain and snow that could continue off and on for days.
Yes, we will read about the inevitable mudslides, dramatic rescues and "all the usual suspects." However, behind the hype and hyperbole of the CNN Headline news, we could be witnessing a "sea change," pun intended, with regard to the California water supply situation. This type of incoming precipitation has potential to also really change the summer fire dynamics. All of this portends good news instead of continuing dire bad news. California is one of those places that seems to always attract the dramatic. Perhaps that's because of the state's size, style or geography. Who knows? It sure looks like another dramatic chapter is about to unfold in The Golden State. It definitely has me on the edge of my seat!

More storms probable

2009-02-10T17:51:00.002-07:00

It's looking good for California. The five-day QPF paints at least a couple inches of water up and down The Golden State. NWS Staff in the various offices are beginning to chatter about upcoming events. We will cover this evolving event in greater detail tomorrow and in coming days. Here's a few choice words from the San Francisco AFD:

ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP AS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS MARCH THROUGH THE WEST COAST...RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORM DOOR WILL REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR THE LONG TERM.

BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP WITH EASILY OVER AN INCH AND POSSIBLY UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE HILLS.

Take a look at the Navy's global composite and you'll see why they used the word "parade" in the AFD. It sure looks like that to me, too!

Idaho appears to be on the outside looking in on all this action. We might get a table crumb or two out of it. However, we're happy to see California is getting hit. They are in a world of hurt waterwise down there. They really, really NEED a LOT of water to help them cope during the upcoming dry season. Let's hope El Pacifico doesn't let them down.

Solar buzz

2009-02-10T08:37:00.004-07:00

This is such a cool graphic that I had to post it up right away. A loyal Blog Follower (WR) sent an article from a Vietnamese newspaper about some science guys warning about an increase in solar storms in the coming years. You can read it here.

Anyway, you can see that the article carried this graphic above. However, the graphic was tiny, tiny, tiny. I messed around with it this morning and got it up to a decent size. It's a tad blurry but what the heck? It's a wonderful depiction of the relationship between our flyspeck Earthship and the gigantic thing we call the sun. The Spaceweather website has been carrying quite a few references speculating about what might happen as the next sunspot cycle gets underway. (IF it ever does!) Click the graphic to see larger version.

The Real McCoy

2009-02-09T19:24:00.006-07:00

Monday night, just before retiring for the evening, I received an email stating the snow situation in Flagstaff. Thanks, MJ! This morning, I scurried off to the Arizona SNOTEL network. WOW! This storm was truly "The Real McCoy."

White Horse Lake SNOTEL is south of Williams, Arizona. It often gets missed by Arizona winter storms. Not this time. It gained 2.3 inches of actual water and went from 6 inches of snow to 25 inches!

Happy Jack is another tell-tale SNOTEL. When Happy Jack gets smacked, you can figure the entire Mogollon Rim and Coconino Plateau got smacked. Get this: Happy Jack has gained over FOUR INCHES of water and the snow depth went from 9 to 36 inches!

Now that's a GREAT Arizona winter storm. That's the kind of storm that makes whitewater boaters grin from ear-to-ear. That's the kind of storm that fills reservoirs. That's just plain awesome.

The Tuesday morning red eye AFD says this storm is mostly gone. Maybe the Rimlands will get another inch or two today. Maybe not. The AFD says unsettled weather is in store and models are hinting at the possibility of another decent snowstorm within a week or so.

At this point, however, I'd say Arizona is "out of the woods" for this water year. As you noted in Sunday School, Arizona's reservoirs were already sitting pretty. This type of snowpack will put them over the top. Congratulations to Ol' Airy Zonie!

NOTE: Here is the text of the email rec'd last night:

"Well! We are getting dumped on for sure! Woke up to 6 inches Sunday morning, more throughout the day, six more this morning, and just coming down all day, really heavy now. Very windy, too. It's good snowball-making snow, too. We'll see how much we have in the morning. Your resident Flagstaff weather reporter, MJ"

Click here for a link to the latest Flagstaff newspaper story about the story. A DPS Commander called it, "the worst snowstorm that DPS has ever had to deal with in northern Arizona."

History of the National Weather Service

2009-02-09T07:16:00.005-07:00

Let's switch to something a little less ominous, shall we? How about the History of the National Weather Service? Yes, I know, it might be a bit dull and boring compared to some of our other scintillating topics, but it is something we all ought to know. Perhaps I should save this stuff for Sunday School. However, I've had my fill of gloom and doom from Australia, drought from China, gales in the Bering Sea, the huff and puff of Redoubt and mudslides in Southern California.

The old photo is of Cleveland Abbe, America's first forecaster. Working as he did with the meager data at this disposal, he clearly qualifies as a visionary genius. As you might expect, NOAA has some very right and proper history of the Weather Service. This article by NOAA is billed as a description of the Signal Corps by Mr. Abbe. It's a lot more than that. Makes for excellent reading if you are a history buff.

Speaking of history, it's worth noting that the weather service's birth predates the designation of Yellowstone as a National Park! Think of it this way, when the Weather Service was born, General George Armstrong Custer still had about 6 years of his life left to live. That kind of puts it into perspective.

Fatal extremes Down Under.

2009-02-08T18:51:00.008-07:00

"Come Hell or High Water" has a whole new meaning today in Australia! In a country as huge as Australia, anything is possible. There are floods in Northeast Australia. Meanwhile another part of the country is burning up and killing scores of people. What is going on Down Under? Google it up and see for yourself.

Short Sunday School

2009-02-08T08:35:00.007-07:00

This will be a short Sunday School session. I'm running late this morning and want to get out and do stuff. Anyway, our lesson today is to help you understand how to monitor "the bottom line" of winter snowpack. This "bottom line" is called "runoff." It's what melts into water and flows downhill into reservoirs. From there the water is carefully measured out to anxious farmers and ranchers farther downstream. They can't farm with snow but they sure can farm with Son of Snow--the liquid gold of runoff.

The Bureau of Reclamation manages many of the water storage projects around the West. BuRec produces what it calls "teacup" diagrams showing at a glance the status of reservoirs and key streamflow for any given project. The above graphic is Sunday's Teacup for the Minidoka Project. Minidoka is the one that includes Jackson Lake in Wyoming, Palisades in Idaho, etc. Click here to go to the actual site where the teacup is located.

The next trick is to determine how to know the overall status of various reservoirs statewide. For that you have to dig deep into the US NRCS SNOTEL website. Click here for a graph of key numbers for Idaho. As you can see, each impoundment has three key numbers: percent of capacity, percent of average and percent of last year. to see any state, simply change the last two letters of the URL to that state's postal code. For example, type "WY" in capital letters instead of Idaho and you can see Jackson Lake's figures. (If that's too challenging, click here.) I'm watching Jackson very carefully since we plan to spend a lot of time there this coming summer. The key figure I see is that it's over 200% of last year. That's a VERY good thing! With the snowpack upstream, there's no doubt Jackson will fill and spill this season. Muy bueno!
Above is an overview of the entire Western US water storage status. It's essentially the same for February 1 as there's been minimal releases and no runoff.

Well, that's it for this Stirring Sunday Session. Short & Sweet even though it's a long post here on El Blog. Next week, I can already tell you what we will be covering--how to analyze snowpack data to understand both the current situation as well as runoff probabilities and even more esoteric stuff that will put you to sleep. Have a great week and the teacher will see you next Sunday! Now GO PLAY!

Blowup in the Bering

2009-02-08T08:06:00.005-07:00

The latest Siberian Salvo is hitting the Bering Sea with some real bluster. Winds are probably blowing 45 knots and the waves are progged to be running 30 feet. Naturally, the barometer is hitting the floor, too. Ugh, if that doesn't sound cold and brutal, I don't know what does! It's hard to say if this particular system will make it down south--the jetstream is pretty wild and whippy right now. Take a look at it--it doesn't get much more fractured than this. The Climate Prediction Center is calling both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts cooler and wetter than normal. That jives with what we can see heading our way from three sectors in the Pacific.

Saturday Situation Report

2009-02-07T07:57:00.002-07:00

Southern California is in line for some nasty weather today and tomorrow. The mountains resorts could get a foot of snow. Flash flood watches are posted throughout most of coastal SOCAL. The morning AFD from San Diego hints at another big storm in a week.

Meanwhile, down in Old Airy Zonie, the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains are in the crosshairs. The QPF progs them to get about 2.5 inches of water over the next five days. Since they're talking a snow level down to 5000 feet, that could mean over two feet of snow for the Arizona Rim Country and Apache Land. If they do get those kind of numbers, it will mean the water users will be singing "Happy Days Are Here Again." No more irrigation worries at least for another growing season.

Not much is progged for our area here in Idaho. We're coasting along in pretty good shape as far as the snowpack goes. If we get a few more stucco jobs, that wold be a real good thing. Way back before all the winter mayhem got rolling, I read a study that said the Upper Snake only needed to reach 90% to get Tater Nation through the Summer of 09. We definitely have 90 percent in the bag and everything above that is gravy.

Meanwhile, way out in the Far Eastern Pacific, it sure looks like there's some real nice water vapor blobs taking shape. Siberia continues to look good, too. There's a hint that the Southern water tap will get more active soon as well. The jet stream is getting kinky again. Be sure to take a look at it this morning.

All-in-all, it adds up to a a "sitting pretty" situation in early February. it sure beats having a gi-normous high pressure system sitting on top of us with sunny skies day after freaking day! If I had to guess, I'd reckon February will produce at least average precip. Average here is about .75 inch. If we're lucky, we'll go slightly higher and the uplands and mountains will pick up another foot of snow.

That's about it for Saturday morning. Don't forget to dress up real nice for SUnday School tomorrow! I'll have all yer number two pencils all sharpened and ready for class.

Climate Statistics

2009-02-05T07:17:00.003-07:00

Have you ever wondered how to find climate data for your area? Wander no more, fearless Statistics Seeker! Click on the tiny graphic at left and you will see all of the various places where climate data is collected in Idaho.

Go to this internet address to see the real map. Then click on whatever location perks your interest. OK, here's where it gets just a tad bit complicated. Up in the address line of your web browser you will see this address:

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/summary/climsmid.html

Note the file name "climsmid.html" To find your state, change the last two letters of the file name to the postal code for your state. Insert "az" for Arizona, and so forth. A wealth of additional statistics can be found for any station by roaming the links in the left hand column for each station.

Ying & Yang

2009-02-04T20:08:00.003-07:00

Hum...it's been awhile since we've seen as dramatic a nationwide disparity in temperatures. If the CPC's 6-10 Day forecast can be believed, we're talking well below normal temps in the west and well above normal temps in the east. Frankly, I'm going to have to see this one to believe it. Sometimes the CPC's computer models get all out of whack. I kinda wonder if that's what is happening in this forecast.

Looks promising

2009-02-04T06:39:00.006-07:00

Click on the little graphic and you will see the weather wonks back in Camp Springs, Maryland, are predicting some pretty widespread moisture across the West during the next five days. This QPF graph has been on-again, off-again lately for California. It's on-again this morning. The Central Sierra is progged for over two inches of precip in the next five days. They sure need it!

The Pocatello NWS red eye shift had this to say in their 3 am Wednesday discussion:

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS CIRCULATION TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO BOTH DAYS. OVER ALL IT APPEARS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT STRONG DISTURBANCE CARRIED BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH ARRIVES. GFS BRINGS THAT DISTURBANCE THROUGH WITH BETTER THAN AN HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT MOISTURE IN SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT ONE THIRD THAT VALUE. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK A SINGLE 24 OR 36 HOUR PERIOD THAT WOULD REPRESENT A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM.

Meanwhile down in KREV (That's Reno NWS for you acronym-challenged readers)the storm looks a whole lot more productive:

A TOTAL OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10 KFT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FT IN THE CNTRL SIERRA.

As usual, it's going to be fun to watch it unfold!

Jetstream flotsam & jetsom

2009-02-03T07:02:00.011-07:00

Anyone who knows me knows that the word "jetstream" is a fundamental part of my regular vocabulary. I don't use the word "jetstream" as often as "food" but it's close! The above jetstream composite forecast clearly shows some impending weirdness along the California Coast. This nicely done graphic can be found here.

Our "goto" image of the jetstream is linked from the graphic in the column at left. There's a pretty weird kink in the jet out there today. If it got any kinkier, it would probably just disappear. I clipped a visual snippet of it. You can click on the tiny graphic to see a larger screen shot.

In case you need a tutorial on the jetstream, Wikipedia, of course, has a most excellent discussion.

I highly advise anyone who's truly interested in our weather patterns to "become one" with the jetstream. Watch it. Learn it. Anticipate it. Enjoy it!

PS--The Good Ol' NWS runs a great online "weather school" appropriately dubbed "Jetstream." If you have ample spare time, I suspect you'd enjoy this school.

It's abundantly clear that the jetstream patterns you see in this blog post are going to very soon "deliver the goods." Click on the QPF link at left and check the 5-day graph.

"Are you ready for some SNOWFALL?"
(This phrase is to be shouted with the same cadence, volume and enthusiasm as the opening line to Monday Night Football.)

Lower 48 Surface Temps

2009-02-02T19:40:00.005-07:00

Unisys to my "goto" website for SST's--Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. Well, today I decided to find a real nice overview of GROUND surface temperatures. And, guess what, Good Ol' Unisys has the best map--at least for me. Here's the link to check it whenever you want. After this post "ages" for awhile, I will convert this Unisys picture to a link in the left column. It's a pretty nice "find" as far as cool weather stuff goes.

I can tell you just by looking at this picture that the people in Rocky Point, Sonora, Mexico, are having a really awesome time on the beaches of the Northern Gulf of California. They are eating huge quantities of shrimp, drinking tanker loads of beer, and generally wrecking cultural havoc as they are wont to do. Party hearty!

Snow shuts down London

2009-02-02T08:54:00.007-07:00

Washington Times--Tuesday, February 3, 2009

A winter storm born in the heart of Russia and sweeping in from continental Europe blanketed Britain in the heaviest snowfall in nearly two decades Monday, nearly paralyzing London and doing what the Nazi blitz of World War II could never manage - bring the capital's buses to a complete halt.

Across the country, about 800 flights were canceled, more than 2,800 schools were closed, courts were shut down, and motorists sat in traffic jams stretching 50 miles or more as snow fell.

Then came warnings of ice, which was expected to coat everything from beaches to mountains.

London's Heathrow Airport, one of the largest and busiest in the world, was forced to idle its runways until just before sunset, with the threat of further closures in the night's snowfall and ice. Passengers were told not to bother going to the airport.

In its opening volley, the storm swirled in on fierce, Arctic-like winds targeting London and the populous southeast area before dawn and into the morning rush hour Monday.

The Federation of Small Businesses estimated that 6.4 million people - about one-fifth of Britain's total work force - never made it to their jobs.

By late Monday afternoon, weather forecasters were predicting that the big freeze could last until the weekend, with ice and sleet moving in to add to the winter's treachery.

Not since February 1991 has London and southeast England been hit so severely. During that winter, the heart of the capital was caught in the chilly grip of a foot of snow.

By midafternoon Monday, the new snowfall was 8 inches deep in the city, and forecasters predicted several more inches.

At its Monday peak, the storm had forced the full or partial shutdown of 10 of London's 11 underground rail lines upon which the city's millions of workers depend to get to and from their offices and homes.

Deja Vu

2009-02-02T06:30:00.002-07:00

PUNXSUTAWNEY — Brace yourself for six more weeks of winter, Pennsylvania’s most famous ground hog Punxsutawney Phil popped out his his burrow on Gobbler’s Knob here this morning and saw his shadow. Legend has it that means winter is here to stay for six weeks.

Phil's official forecast as read at Gobbler's Knob was:

"Hear Ye Hear Ye, On Gobbler's Knob this glorious Groundhog Day, Feb. 2, 2009, Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators ... proclaimed that his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers were World Champions one more time, and a bright sky above me, showed my shadow beside me, so six more weeks of winter it will be."

Phil has seen his shadow 96 times in this town about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh. He has seen his shadow for eight of the past nine years.

There were just 14 times, including 2007, when he didn’t see it, there by predicting an early spring. There are no records for nine years, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

Sunday School Lessons

2009-02-01T08:20:00.015-07:00

It's that time once again for another stirring SUNDAY SCHOOL! Yea, yippee, aren't you excited? So grab your mouse and click it up a notch!

Back during our last Sunday School, January 25 we theorized that La Nina was a "happening reality." Lo and behold, the very next day--January 26-- NOAA & NWS jumped on the La Nina bandwagon. The full story is told in a 30-page document that insanely heavy on jargon, numbers, charts, graphs and lots of little arrows and squiggly lines. If you can hack looking at this mind-numbing piece of science it's located here. We will expand and expound more on this topic later. It's Sunday morning and I need more coffee.

Here's a real fun gift received in this morning's email inbox. It's a perfect little ditty for this morning's weekly Sunday School. One of our Dear Readers and Followers found a 1985 media clipping about some guy who studied weather proverbs such as: “The squeak of the snow will the temperature show.” Thanks to Stephen N. (AKA Stephen S.) we now have these gems preserved for posterity a click over right yonder on our website.

Speaking of Sunday School, it's time for a pop quiz! OK, Class, what, where and when were the most extreme high and low temps recorded for Idaho? Or Arizona? Or whatever? I can hear your groans, class, and I feel your pain. But, trust me, these are trivia well worth remembering. Imagine the bets you can win!

For the record, Idaho's highest temp ever recorded was 118 in Orofino in 1934 and it's lowest was 60 below at Island Park Dam in 1943. Click here to see every stat's extremes and scroll down the page for the actual data.

How's the Sea Ice doing? Not to fear, Class, simply click here.

Class, this is a great one!!!! I'm sure you've been reading that Redoubt ash caused engine failure on a jetliner back in 1989. Well, I've been having trouble finding the details of the story. I finally found them this morning in Russia at KVERT--Russia's science center for watching volcanic activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

If you thought those people who surfed down onto the Hudson were worried, imagine what it would be like to free fall 18000 feet with NO engines on a 747 jetliner. Now, we're talking a real "life passing in front of your eyes" experience. Here's the details--it's an amazing story--WOW:

"On December 15, 1989, a Boeing-747 flying from Amsterdam with 231 passengers and 13 crewmen on board started to descend from the cruising altitude in order to land in Anchorage, Alaska, USA. The plane was at a height of 7500 m, and was flying a distance of 240 km from Redoubt volcano, when suddenly it entered an ash cloud from a volcanic eruption. As a result, all four engines died. After eight minutes, and with only 2000 m to land, the pilots finally were able to restart the engines. After the aircraft landed, over 60 kg of volcanic ash was removed from each turbine-engine. All four engines, as well as the navigation system, and electric system had to be completely replaced. The loss to the airline due to this incident was over 80 million dollars."

Talk about pucker factor! By the way, I do a redoubt Rewrite at least twice daily. I added some new links this morning. Check it out. This concludes Sunday School. Now GO PLAY!

Not so California Dreamin'

2009-01-30T19:24:00.007-07:00

In spite of the copious gifts of The Great Winter 2008-2009, California has been left out. They are in a "world of hurt" right now waterwise. It looks real grim for California. So grim, in fact, we won't even attempt to make jokes or puns about it. Click here to read just how grim it really is. Grim is the word of the day there. Grim & bear it.

(Added 01FEB-Edited 02FEB)If you click on the QPF link at left, you will see the 5-day shows California getting some precip. A little more than 1 inch of water is progged for parts of the Coast Range. Water falling in the Coast Range doesn't help much. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 forecast confirms the QPF projections. Don't forget to check the CPC's website at least once a week.

What's on tap?

2009-01-30T07:04:00.002-07:00

It's time to talk about what might be upstream heading our way. The high pressure over the West doesn't seem to be as strong or persistent as January's earlier mid-winter break. I'd suspect this high will move east soon. Meanwhile, another good pattern is shaping up for possible transport of lots of water onshore. The equatorial latitudes are beaming up a real nice plume on the "southern track." Siberian is also doing its duty and pipelining a rather consistent looking plume on the far northern track. Meanwhile the middle track looks like it's setting up a shipment, too. In football this might be called "the West Coast Offense." I'd suspect that one or more of these vapor plumes will be making news sometime next week.

When in doubt-Redoubt!

2009-01-29T20:07:00.018-07:00

(Edit #5 31JAN09 8:30 pm)You are all up to speed on Mount Redoubt--no doubt! It's going to blow. It's not a matter of if, simply when.

In the meantime, perhaps this would be a good time to review "volcanic lightning. Yep, there really IS such a thing! Google it and then select "images." The above image is that Big Volcano in Chile whose name I can never spell or pronounce. From what I've been reading, it's a major motion picture show!

OK, back to Redoubt. In case, you've been sleeping under a basalt rock, Redoubt's a big volcano 100 miles upwind from Anchorage. It's last eruption gig spanned from December 1989 to April 1990. It also erupted in 1966 and 1902. This particular volcano has the potential to really shake up North American weather patterns.

A Google News search using simply the word "Redoubt" will yield hundreds of articles.
Here's a pretty cool article from late Saturday evening.In a column called "Talk of the Tundra," a writer lists a long bibliography about Redoubt.

The northern latitudes are already still filled up with a major dose of volcanic gas from the 3 Aleutian volcanic eruptions this summer. All that gunk is still up there. That's the primary reason it's been so much colder than normal up there this winter. Here's a nice NASA link on volcanic cooling. The Alaskan Volcano Observatory is taking this event very seriously. As of Friday morning the AVO's web servers were totally overwhelmed and the site was inaccessible. As of Saturday morning AVO was back online and fully functional.

I've been reading about Redoubt's impact on the Cook Inlet oil facilities back in 1989-1990. Get this: at it's peak flow, the Drift River was running 2.1-MILLION cfs! That is more than the Mississippi. Here's where I read those figures.

A Mild Future is in Store

2009-01-28T20:37:00.003-07:00

It looks like we are in for a mild future. Not a Bluebird phase, perhaps, but at least a pause from the mayhem of recent daze. We've been pretty battered here lately by snow and cold. Susun and I joked today that driving the local streets felt like four wheeling in Custer County! Of course, we don't have a four wheeler here and we're driving on summertime tires. So take our assessment with a grain of snow.

As you can see by Thursday's 5-day QPF forecast, it looks totally dry across the West. Perhaps the Tetons will get a few more inches of snow. These same QPF graphs from a few days ago sure turned out to be spot on.

Idaho Falls is definitely "under the spell" of winter. Whatever you do here, where ever you go, you are aware that the slightest slip up will result in a jarring fall on ice-covered concrete or asphalt. This morning I wore Yak-Trax on my boots when I snowblowed the sidewalks. People we know here are walking very carefully each with each step--they know the cost of a slip up. Yea, verily, this is what it means to have an "epic winter." We're not complaining--it's a good thing!

Happy Trails, Frank!

2009-01-27T14:50:00.004-07:00

One of our dear friends, Frank Protiva, was killed last Friday morning when his 1963 Cessna 205 crashed in trees about 15 miles south of Flagstaff, Arizona. Frank was one of the 5 "Followers" of this Blog. He was an avid weather watcher and we exchanged many great emails about "The Great Winter of 2008-2009." You can click on his picture at left to read his official obituary. I will be creating a memorial page for him on my personal website. Since we was a genuine Follower of this blog, I thought it was only fitting that he should have a little memorial here, too. NOTE: When this post moved off the front page, we took down Frank's photo and the link connected to it. It's going to take us at least a day to reconnect the photo, the post and the link to his obit. Don't worry, it's on our radar. Thanks for your patience. j

Kinda cold here

2009-01-27T07:26:00.002-07:00

Surprise! The overnight low here in Idaho falls reached 29 below. Clouds moved in and as of dawn the temps had rallied to only maybe 8-10 below. Click here to see the blow-by-blow data.

Fireball

2009-01-26T20:53:00.004-07:00

You may have read about the fireball in Sweden about mid-month. I know it's not really related to winter weather here but I'd like to preserve the best known video of the fireball for posterity.

Los Niños

2009-01-25T09:16:00.008-07:00

It's Sunday School! Yippee! OK, Welcome to Sunday School. Today we're going to talk about a couple of Golden Oldies: El Niño & La Niña, AKA Los Niños. You've all heard their names a thousand times since they were "discovered" back in the 1980's. The books, papers and articles written about Los Niños would probably fill a skyscraper.
As the years have passed, Los Niños have become a legendary part of global weather lore. It's been a long time since I've seen a simplified explanation of those two terrible children. Well, lo and behold, while we were roaming El Net this morning we quite literally stumbled onto a very nice and simple description and discussion of Los Niños. Click here to go to the NWS Pacific Regional HQ's "ENSO" page. Then click the "Next" button at the bottom of that page, and viola, Sunday School comes alive! OK, Class, we'd like to call your attention to something called the "Niño 3.4 Zone." Click on the tiny graphic here and you will see it between latitudes 5N and 5S and between longitudes 120 and 150 West. The NWS says this zone "is the preferred region to monitor sea surface temperature" for the purposes of monitoring ENSO and therefore Los Niños. Now, Class, go click over on the SST link at your left. Take a real close look at the Niño 3.4 Zone and tell me what you see. Hum...that's right, Class, you see cooler waters! NOAA & the NWS have this little gig where they won't declare either an El Niño or La Niña until they have months of data to back up their claims. Often, I've noticed that either of the Los Niños is clearly visible long BEFORE the scientists say it's "official." I am getting an inkling that such may be the case right now. I've heard vague rumors that a "weak La Niña" is possible for this year. (Check this Anchorage article.) I'm beginning to think those rumors might worth listening to. Keep an eye on the Niña 3.4 Zone in the weeks ahead. If you see a wider area of cooler water and a cooling trend, I think you might wanna lend some credence to those rumors! Thanks for attending Sunday School. Now GO PLAY! (PS--We are now moderating comments so there will be a time delay between when you comment and when it shows up. Sorry 'bout that!)

YMMV

2009-01-25T08:12:00.002-07:00

YMMV is texter-talk for "Your Mileage May Vary." It's relevant today in context of recent snowfall. Precip has been pretty fickle in Eastern Idaho. Island Park barely picked up a half inch of precip and only a few inches of snow. Meanwhile Pine Creek Pass fared better, gaining about 10 inches of snow. The real winner is down in Napoleon Dynamite Country in the high country of the Idaho Wasatch east of Preston. That area got 2.5 inches of snow water equivalent and danged near another couple of feet of snow! Sunday morning here in Idaho Falls is fully decked in stylish Winter Gray. It's foggy and cold with lots of sloppy snow strewn helter skelter every which way but loose.

OK, let's talk about the graphic in this post. When's the last time you've seen such a "busy" weather map? Looks like they almost ran out of space to draw their little arrows and make those funky circles for heavy snow. I often wonder if making those maps is like playing a video game like Guitar Hero or Grand Theft Auto. Maybe when those head-phone clad Weather Wonks are hunched in front of their computer screen, they are actually rocking out to Def Leppard or grooving on Squirrel Nut Zippers. Who knows?

Rain on The Plain In Spain

2009-01-24T11:47:00.005-07:00

News readers are well aware of a terrific storm smacking Southern France and Northern Spain. It's deadly and numerous people have been killed. Officials are calling it the worst such storm in December 1999. Here is one key snippet from BBC: "The storm system has been gathering strength over the past few days as it moved over the relatively warm waters of the western Atlantic." As you can see from the lower graphic, there is a very warm area out in the middle of the Atlantic. This area is almost a mirror image of a similar warm area off our West Coast out in the Pacific.

These types of concentrated areas of abnormal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) warmth can have a great impact on weather systems. Not every system will be impacted. But you can easily see how the current mayhem in Spain has been exacerbated by that warm area in the Atlantic.

I bring all of this up as a caveat--the very same thing could indeed happen with one of the remaining systems due to wash ashore in our neck of the woods. It's fairly unlikely, mind you, but it IS a possibility. Keep an eye on those SST's via the link at left. The very same sort of thing could happen to our West Coast that is now happening to Spain.

Back In Business

2009-01-23T19:25:00.005-07:00

Here's the "proof of the pudding." You can see the return of the periodic blobs of water vapor rolling out of Asia into the Pacific for their final approach to the North American Continent. Couple this with the wild and crazy rock and roll jetstream and you have a recipe for another real stout round of Ol' Man Winter! We checked the Climate Prediction Center's website just to be sure. Yep, the 8-14 day and the 30 day forecasts both call for "above normal" precip in the PAC NW. (Sorry, Arizona, yer gonna be left off the Party Boat.)

Sneaky Snow Attack

2009-01-23T06:00:00.004-07:00

We woke up earlier than normal this morning--4 am. The light seemed to suggest it was after 6 am. HA! It was because of a stealthy snowstorm that arrived after we went to bed last night. Here in Idaho falls, we're looking at about 6 inches of snow--it's the first storm in weeks. (NOTE--Once I got out in it, I'd say it's 8 inches.) It's snowing heavily as I write this so I suspect we will get more of the white stuff. Definitely time to fire up the snowblower.

That high pressure really lulled us into "lah-lah land." It seemed like the sun would shine forever! The KIDA obs say we've rec'd more than a half inch of precip. That would be consistent with the old-fashioned 12:1 snow to water ratio. Interestingly, the boyz and ghurlz working the night shift at Pocatello NWS must be asleep at the switch. The warning map shows nothing to indicate the area just got whacked by snow. Go figure.

Jet On Meth

2009-01-22T20:22:00.003-07:00

Study this jetstream graphic closely. Click on it for the larger version. There are some really wild kinks and twists and turns on this jetstream. Heck, there's almost the equivalent of an "abandoned meander," in river runner terms. Look over around the UK and check out that little dipsy-doodle.

This jetstream patterns is beginning to show what we really, really hope to see--CRAZY BEHAVIOR! A crazy jetstream is a good jetstream--at least if you hope to have a wild and wooly winter with lots and lots of cold and snow. A zonal, lazy jetstream is not only boring, it rarely produces bizarre weather filled with extremes. CRAZY jets are like a rock and roll band on drugs. (See 1960's Rolling Stones.) CRAZY jets do crazy things.

A NWS Weather wonk once taught me eons ago to imagine a 19th Century wagon wheel balanced atop the North Pole. He said the jet would be the iron rim of the wheel. If things were lazy and boring all the spokes of the wheel would be the same length and the jet would be zonal and just go round and round. However, he said if the spokes go to be different lengths, then the rim would go crazy. That's the pattern we want to see--a wagon wheel gone wild!

The trick is to visualize that the wagon wheel spins round and round on the North Pole axis. Once the spokes get all out of kilter, they simply keep things out of whack all around the whole planet. It certainly looks to me like we're getting into one of those enviable patterns.

I'm tempted to break out into a river runner wild cheer but I am going to save that irrational exuberance until I know for certain that this pattern is indeed delivering the goods. (Note added 6 am 23JAN: Well, it's delivering the goods as of this morning!)

2009-01-22T07:14:00.006-07:00

The QPF numbers are on the rise. Check the difference between yesterday's QPF and today's You will note some very interesting differences. The net numbers have increased. The areas of coverage are larger. Overall, this is a very good trend.
By the way, what does QPF mean? It's "Quantitative Precipitation Forecast." All gubmint lives by acronyms but the weather wonks are especially addicted to acronyms. I'd suspect they sit around in the deep dark of night secretly plotting to convert all known human activity to an acronym!

Despite their penchant for acronyms, the Wonks also enjoy use of an occasional fun word. Check this snippet from today's Reno AFD: "A RELATIVELY NARROW BUT HEAVY BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE. THIS BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP IS BEING FED BY A JUICY SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION OFF THE BAJA COAST."

Juicy, huh? Way cool, Dude!

Lee Waves

2009-01-21T20:25:00.004-07:00

This is a picture of some "lee waves" on the east side of the Rocky Mountains near Boulder, Colorado. Click here to read about lee waves. If you are reading this soon after I posted it, please go to Spaceweather and read about this particular photo and gain some additional insight on lee waves. That Spaceweather website is easily the most fascinating day-to-day website I've ever encountered--at least if you're interested in strange weather and space phenomena.

Bye, Bye, High!

2009-01-21T07:12:00.004-07:00

Looks like our mid-winter break is finally coming to an end. Here's a Wednesday morning Pocatello AFD snippet:

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND IS PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WYOMING. A MULTI-FACETED PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON SHORE TODAY WITH SEVERAL DISTINCT AREAS OF CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A CIRCULATION WEST OF LOS ANGELES WHILE A SECOND AND THIRD MORE POTENT SYSTEM WEST LIES WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

As you can see from the above graphic, your friendly NWS weather wonks are showing some medium decent precip over the next five days. Let's hope they are correct.

The Idaho-Wyoming snowpack has held up well during this protracted high pressure system. Island Park still has about 3 feet. Two Ocean Plateau in Wyoming is a whisker short of 6 feet. Snow water equivalent has held steady. Most watersheds are at or above 100% of normal for this time of year. One more big round of snowstorms would put every drainage in great shape for spring. With any luck at all, we hope to see February deliver one or two more feet of snow across the Intermountain West.

Out On A Big Limb Here

2009-01-18T19:46:00.005-07:00

OK, we're going out on a Big Limb here and we taking a saw with us. We're cutting the limb behind us! If you've never tried this trick, I highly recommend it. Put yourself someplace where you can't get back--and then cut the limb off. Wow, it's fun!

Anyway, we think the high pressure is dead--toast, DOA, history. Yeah, it's still here--today in Idaho Falls was majestic--surreal, actually. But today was the high water mark of this puppy. It's outta here. So what if the jetstream is bent backwards? So what if chinook winds are toasting Alaska? So what if people think happy times are here again? It's time for change--dramatic change--and change is coming to your local neighborhood theater soon. I'd expect this high and all of its baggage to be out of here within two days, possibly earlier, but no later than mid-week. Then, the zonal jet will come back and kick anatomy. We've been saying the water vapor blobs are stacked up--you can see them above.

The Big Question Mark (no pun intended) is "what's happening to the polar airmass?" If, as we suspect, the polar air is just as cold as it was prior to this high pressure regime, then it will reassert itself very soon. If some voodoo magic made all that cold air disappear, then we will apologize and you can get your money back for reading this blog. (Your check is in the mail! Bailout money, of course.)

But we don't suspect that any kind of known voodoo has made that frigid polar airmass disappear. We suspect it will be back with a real attitude. And we suspect that the snow events of recent weeks will be just a "tune up" for what's in store.

Yeah, this is Big Limb stuff. When you go out on a limb this big and start saying the sky is falling, you've got nothing to gain and everything to lose--credibility-wise. But, hey, if we didn't do it this way, it just wouldn't be any FUN!

Enjoy the outcome & Cheers!

A few Friday night thoughts

2009-01-16T21:10:00.003-07:00

(See Sunday notes at end of post.)Well, what's in store for our future now that the high pressure is prepping to move east? There's no lack of Wazillas trying to knock down our doors. In fact, it appears that various pulses of water vapor coming out of Siberia are stacked up like airliners in a busy airport landing pattern. Currently the jetstream is largely zonal until its hits the high pressure wall. Once the high departs, the zonal flow will blow straight onshore along the Western US coast. Be sure to click the SST Map (sea Surface Temps) on your left. There's been an interesting anomaly developing in the heart of the Eastern Pacific. Currently, it's core is 2.59 degrees centigrade above normal. Keep an eye on this. Likewise, keep an eye on that east-west area west of South America that appears to be cooling rapidly. It could be a precursor of a weak resurgence of La Niña. It's obviously too early to tell right now but things are cooling down rapidly there. Watch it!

I suspect we haven't seen the last of the impacts of the summertime volcanic ash that's circulating in the Arctic latitudes. Even though it's been "hot" in Alaska lately, there's a lot of cold air om the arctic latitudes--very frigid up there! (See note below.) The winds in the Central Gulf of Alaska are medium stout right now but their are kicking up 18-20 waves. Check good ol' buoy 49001 to see for yourself.

This has been a wonderful mid-winter break--amazing in scope and power. It's ending soon--you can already see the patterns developing for its departure. Enjoy this weekend--get out and do something really unusual for January--because soon it's "back to the future" and the future is Winter! I'd guess we have 4-6 weeks more winter before the seasonal tilt of earth's axis loosens winter's grip on our latitudes.

Personally, I'm expecting another round of medium decent Pacific storms to begin to pulse ashore soon--building in intensity as the jetstream refocuses it's wrath on the western states. It's time to give the Midwest and the East Coast a well-deserved break! It's going to be our turn once again soon.

Well, that's about all I have to say about it tonight. Maybe tomorrow we will have some different thoughts. Thank you for reading and have a great and glorious weekend!

Sunday thoughts: The high is still there, looking perhaps even stronger. Click the Navy water vapor to see for yourself. Despite the warm chinook winds in Alaska, there still has to be some frigid air up in those latitudes. Consider this from Fairbanks: "The temperature never rose above 20 below for 16 straight days from Dec. 27 to Jan. 11. The low temperature was 40 below or colder on 14 of those days."

Look at Saturday's highs!

2009-01-16T20:42:00.005-07:00

CHECK THIS OUT! The Saturday high temperature near Glacier National Park is progged to be HIGHER that the temps on the Gulf Coast and the Georgia Atlantic Coast! What? Have the Weather Gods lost their minds? This is amazing! (Note added Sunday morning: It was 20 degrees warmers in Anchorage, Alaska, than Alabama!)You can click this sentence to go to the map as it may appear in real time. I grabbed this picture Friday evening. It might be different tomorrow. But the bottom line is that you won't see this again in January--and possibly not in any January again in your entire lifetime!

(Additional Sunday morning note: Turns out the now famous high pressure system pumped a chinook into Alaska and Fairbanks got to 54 degrees! Here's the full story of the Fairbanks high temps records.

Wazilla vs. Super High

2009-01-15T07:29:00.002-07:00

Ladies & Gentlemen, in this corner we have Wazilla, Conqueror of The West, and in this corner we have Super High--the most powerful January phenomena we've seen along the Coast in many a year. As Wadzilla and Super High come into the Pacific Ring of Fire--watch them collide with the massive force of the juggernauts they are. WOW--what a show they are putting on for you, Ladies & Gentlemen!

Seriously, this is one of the best displays of the "blocking" affect of a strong high pressure system. The water laden low pressure troughs are literally "hitting the wall" on the west edge of this high pressure system. It's really impressive and due to hang around possibly to the middle of next week. Eventually, it will break down and move downstream, dissipating into the data dust bin of climatological history. WHile it's here and strutting its stuff, it sure is an awesome sight to behold. Enjoy!

80 degrees @ Monterrey, CA on 13JAN!

2009-01-14T07:10:00.004-07:00

Well, I would never make it as TV weather guy--not unless somebody dressed up my maps for me! From the looks of the goofy doodles on the map above, I'd never make it as a graffiti artist either. As you can see a huge chunk of the West is living under the influence of a gigantic high pressure system. This puppy is so big, it's making the jetstream turn almost 90 degrees north and then arch clear up into Alaska before bending back to head into the Midwest. Farther West, way out in the Pacific, there's a lot of high pressure. The big question is whether subsequent pressure areas will come and follow the one we have right now. What's it going to take to break this pattern and send us back to winter weather? Who knows? Right now it looks like we have a planetary scale pattern in place that could dominate Pacific for some time to come.

A LOT of new record high temps were recorded along the California Coast Tuesday. Amazing figures such as 75 degrees at the San Francisco Airport were logged. Records will be broken today, too but values will be a few degrees less. Just trying to imagine 80 degrees at Monterrey in January is truly mind-bending!

Meanwhile, attention is turning the weather for January 20 when Obama will be sworn in. Click here for a great historical look at such days. The Eastern half of the Nation is getting bodyslammed by cold weather. Luckily, it's supposed to ease to 35 degrees in DC by next Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.

Say HI to your HIGH!

2009-01-11T08:38:00.006-07:00

Guess who's coming to dinner? He's big, he's coming from California and he's HIGH! Oh, gawd! A few days ago back when we spoofed that snake out in the Pacific, we kinda thought there would be a giant high pressure system taking up residence in the Great Basin and Southwest US. Today, it looks virtually certain that this high pressure will soon move in for a visit. Below are some Sunday morning snippets from various western AFD's. Please take time to note and ponder the comments out of Las Vegas. MOST interesting!

(Pocatello)--BY THURSDAY THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND WITH AGREEMENT OF ALL EXTENDED MODELS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE EVERYWHERE IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH. OTHERWISE THE MAIN WEATHER TRENDS WILL BE FOR A WIDER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SPREAD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

(ELKO) SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY HAVE A 595DM RIDGE CENTERED AT ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH.

(LAS VEGAS) LONG TERM...I HAD SOME TIME TONIGHT WITH THE QUIET WX TO LOOK THIS UP BUT FOUND IT INTERESTING...ALL 3 PREVIOUS DECEMBERS WHERE LAS VEGAS HAS SEEN AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FALL WERE FOLLOWED BY A JANUARY WITH EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. WHILE ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS JANUARY WILL FOLLOW SUCH AN ANALOGUE THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE US THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A VERY STRONG 500 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NORCAL WEDNESDAY WHILE A DEEP TROUGH PERSISTS IN THE EASTERN US. THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL RESULT IN 700 MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6C BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN SOME INSTANCES AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT JUST HOW WARM THINGS GET.

(FLAGSTAFF) BY TUESDAY WE EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO START...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

(RENO) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...OR IN THE 50S AT MOST ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

Attention: AVALANCHE!

2009-01-09T19:57:00.003-07:00

Avalanches are in the news on an almost daily basis. Snow slides are killing people this year and it doesn't seem to matter where they are. One 85-year-old woman near Spokane was killed when snow slid off her roof while she was shoveling snow on her front walk! People are even getting killed "in bounds" at major ski resorts. You have to read this New York Times article on the situation to really appreciate the depth and scope of the situation. Check this snippet: "Two patrollers witnessed the slide and located Mr. Nodine’s beacon within two minutes. They uncovered his head within another six. Patrollers quickly recovered him from a deep, concretelike tomb, but it was too late; he had suffocated."

Ah, High Pressure!

2009-01-08T19:01:00.002-07:00

Well, I reckon that Snake Bite graphic I put up a few days ago worked out pretty good. There's a Mid Winter Break coming to your local neighborhood motion picture theater real soon. Check this babble from the Pocatello NWS AFD today. (Note: the spelling of the word "chance" is Pocatello's--NOT mine!)

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE PATTERN WE SAW EARLIER IN THE FALL WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE COAST AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES RETURNS. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS LIES IN RELATION TO EASTERN IDAHO. MODELS KEEP THE AXIS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BULK OF LONG TERM AND AS A RESULT...THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

The farther south you get the more enthusiastic the NWS people are about this whole gig. It looks like the Real Deal, as they say. However, as we said in at least one of our previous posts, don't let your guard down--winter ain't gone. Nope, it'll be BAAAACK! And when it comes, it's coming with a real vengeance and an really BAD attitude. Enjoy this Mid-Winter Break--you deserve it!

2009-01-08T07:26:00.003-07:00

Eastern Idaho is getting some snow action today. Nothing major. However, this NWS graphic is so nice looking and symmetrical, I just had to post it on the blog. It looks like something someone stuck in a long, boring meeting would doodle if they had a lot of colored pencils.

Western Washington snowmelt increases

2009-01-08T07:16:00.003-07:00

Yesterday things were bad but not so bad. Today things are bad and getting a lot worse. The Seattle NWS has posted a great synopsis of their situation there. It's 8 megs so don't try to download it unless you have a hot rod broadband connection. They have some VERY impressive slides of what is happening there. There are 22 rivers flooding and a few above all time high flows with a few more progged to set new records. The rainfall amounts and rainfall rates are pretty amazing. This is how a Wadzilla behaves when it comes in on a low level bombing run. It just flat carpet bombs a wide swath of landscape--in this case a heavily snow-covered and steep landscape. They are in a world of hurt up there right now and it's rapidly becoming the biggest story so far to come out of The Great Winter of 2008-2009. All we can do from our chair in this theater is sit back and watch in total awe. Good Luck, Western Washington State, our prayers are with you!

Even Alaskans say it's COOOOLD!

2009-01-07T20:49:00.002-07:00

Well, blog fans, I was roaming El Net tonight and found a fun AP article out of Alaska. Check this snippet: "Johnson lives in Stevens Village, where residents have endured close to two weeks of temperatures pushing 60 below zero." The article goes on to talk about how the temps have been very low throughout Alaska for a very long period of time this year.

Hum....that sure sounds like what you would expect after all that volcanic ash spewed forth from the Aleutians this summer. Well, I guess the chickens are coming home to roost!

I really love this quote: "I've never seen it this cold for this long," he said. "I remember it 70 below one time, but not for a week and a half."

Even people in Anchorage are complaining. They are apparently accustomed to temps in the low single digits this time of year. However, it's been about -20 and they aren't happy. If the volcanic ash is the root cause of this cold regime, guess what? It's going to continue unabated well into spring time, perhaps even next summer.

Meanwhile, each kinky jetstream that dares dip down into the Lower 48 is going to bring abnormally cold air. When these jetstreams happen to collide with your basic Neighborhood Wadzilla coming across the Pacific, then the areas underneath such collisions are going to get some real epic snowfall and the inherent issues that come with such snowfall.

Even though it appears we are due for a mid-winter break since the jetstream is now zonal and a high pressure system is building over the Great Basin and Southwest, the winter is FAR from over. The abnormally cold air mass engulfing Alaska simply isn't going anywhere. It's up there to stay for weeks and most likely months. Why? Because that volcanic ash continues to circle the globe at the Arctic latitudes.

Meanwhile, the water vapor patterns will continue in much the same way as they have so far this winter. It's not a matter of "IF" the Lower 48 will get body slammed again--only a matter of "WHEN!"

Rivers are up in Washington State

2009-01-07T19:06:00.003-07:00

(See updated post above) Well, it's been raining over in Washington State. Actually, it's been some pretty heavy and protracted rain. Numerous rivers are at or near flood stage. However, none of them are remotely near their record high flows. Despite the media hysteria, it looks like a fairly normal runoff event. The snow melt is being contained by the stream channels in an orderly manner. I'd guess that during the "funny money" phase of ridiculous mortgages some people built high dollar houses in the flood fringe or even the flood plain. I would reckon these idiots are getting pounded right now. However, all the rest of civil society in Washington State is doing quite well, thank you!

You can watch all of the snow melt and streamflow mayhem, such as it is, unfold by keeping an eye on the USGS Real Time Streamflow numbers. The "GS," as they are called, maintains a real time data table for every state. It's quite an amazing feat. I highly recommend learning how to monitor streamflows in any given state in America.

Click on this sentence to go to the Washington State real time streamflow page. Surf around until you get the hang of it. Look for the little drop down menu window and choose "Peak Streamflow." This will help you understand just how tame today's flows are compared to the wildness of historical flows. Good luck!

Can you trust a snake?

2009-01-05T19:25:00.003-07:00

Anybody who's been anywhere has had at least one encounter with a snake. Coulda been a rattler--coulda been any snake. But, if you're "Snake Savvy," you know what I mean. Can you trust a snake? Well, I reckon it all depends on your point of view. I trust any snake that's outside of my truck!

OK, here we go--check this out. In the photo above this narrative is the latest US Navy water vapor picture out in the Pacific. Sure looks weird to me, I have to admit.

They say--"they" being the weather wonks--that we might be getting a big ol' high pressure system coming to visit. What that means is a "mid-winter break." I kind of think they are right, especially when I'm looking at this snake out in the Pacific.
If the snake coil keeps coilin' and the snake puffs up some more, I'd reckon this here snake could settle over the whole entire Western You-nighted States. It's one big puppy, that's furr shure.

Well, meanwhile, we are getting some annoying skiff of snow here in Idaho Falls--nothing deep enough to do anything with but just deep enough to make idiot drivers make fools of themselves.

Ten Below here

2009-01-04T07:29:00.003-07:00

The sub-zero cold snap predicted actually materialized and we're sitting Sunday morning in the deep freeze. Actually, ten below ain't bad. What few hardy souls are left in Stanley are really shivering at -28! Temps will probably rise somewhat in the next day or two. We're progged for some snow Monday. The far Pac NW coast is due to get hit hard once again. Check this snippet from the morning Seattle AFD:

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES DURING THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD DRIVE MANY AREA RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.

In reading the various AFD's and looking at global water vapor patterns and the jetstream, I think we're going to get a classic "mid-winter break" beginning sometime around 10JAN, perhaps as late as 12JAN. Even the Climate Prediction Center has both the 6-10 and 8-14 days maps looking good--above normal temps and below normal precip. It's about time!

The key to our winter snowpack will unfold in late January and February. Last year, the snow pretty much stopped in early February. This year, I have a hunch, we might see some additional snow in the mid to late February timeframe. Water supplies are looking pretty good right now but we need to finish the job.

More of the same

2009-01-02T07:18:00.002-07:00

A regular series of Pacific storms continue to affect our Northwest weather. The daily QPF graphs look remarkably the same each day. The US Navy water vapor photos also seems to be clones of the previous day. The NWS chatter in their various discussions is sounding like the proverbial old broken vinyl record. Idaho Falls has enjoyed a few days above freezing but it looks like we're in for another cold snap. Here's the AM Pocatello AFD snippets:

LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOT SHOWING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DUE TO OVERRUNNING. QUITE UNBELIEVABLE OVERRUNNING IN FACT AS TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGE FROM 44F AT BURLEY...44F AT CHALLIS...AND 34F BEING REPORTED AT STANLEY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 14 INCHES IN SAWTOOTHS WHILE UP TO A FOOT EXPECTED IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. ANOTHER CONCERN ARE THE WINDS. 120KT JET PROGGED TO MOVE OVER REGION THIS MORNING AND IN RESPONSE...HOWEVER...NOW MUST CONTEND WITH A REMARKABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS REMAINING REGIONS.

The primary beneficiary of this pattern is the Upper Snake River watershed. It is beginning to look very favorable for the 2009 water supply.

Deja vu?

2008-12-30T08:03:00.002-07:00

Phil: Do you ever have deja vu Mrs. Lancaster?
Mrs. Lancaster: I don't think so, but I could check with the kitchen.

Above is one of my favorite quotes from the movie Ground Hog Day. Bill Murray is in the dining room of his B&B. Well, in this case our weather deja vu is all coming from the same kitchen right now--Siberia. Big Wadzillas there are ganging up and rolling offshore to bluster across the Pacific and splatter the Northwest with fat gobs of rain, ice and snow. The pattern looks to continued abated for awhile. Today's QPF graphic looks almost exactly like one from a few days ago. Deja Vu? You betcha!

Meanwhile, one of the Jackson ski resort restaurants sustained avalanche damage yesterday. It was a front page story in the Idaho Falls paper. They claim to have rec'd 5 feet of snow in 7 days. Avalanche deaths are soaring, 9 since 14DEC, plus another 8 in Canada over the weekend.

The jetstream has gone zonal--basically that means Old Man Winter is blowing full force in a straight line right smack across the Pacific. No dipsy-doodle whippy kinks and bends for the jetstream right now. Don't worry, though, they will be back!

People really begin to pay attention to the gubmint's snow data as of 01JAN each year. That's the first report that really matters. The US NRCS will publish monthly Snow Reports for each state January through May. Click here for a tremendous narrative summary of the NRCS Snow Measurement & Reporting program.

Wadzilla?

2008-12-28T15:04:00.010-07:00

Hum...that's one heck of a wad o' water vapor out there in the Pacific. It's heading our way. We nicknamed it Wadzilla.

Meanwhile, the jetstream is having more fun than a contortionist at a ten cent circus. It's got itself an actual 90 degree kink in it. Normally, the jet rocks and rolls with a wavelike action--getting real angular, so to speak, just ain't part of the jetstream's life plan. It won't last long so enjoy the anomaly while you can.
Remember, you can click on any image on this blog to see a larger version. The Blog Gnomes automatically shrink images down to tiny little files. The larger original lives under the Gnome Bridge with the Blog Troll.

Chetco rose 15 feet

2008-12-28T14:40:00.004-07:00

Well, the Chetco is probably a river you've never heard of. It drains down out of SW Oregon's Coast Range and meets the sea at Brookings in Curry County, Oregon. We camped on the banks of the Chetco for a few days back in 2002. These coastal streams are very accustomed to sudden high flows. The Chetco rose a total of 15 feet and reached a peak flow of 51,000 cfs. Only minor flooding damage was sustained.

How do you find this stuff? Good question. Google "Oregon Real Time Stream Flows" and then scroll all the way to the end of the list. There is it like magic.

Silverton was no fluke

2008-12-28T09:17:00.006-07:00

Sunday morning we are roaming the SNOTEL sites looking for Big Snow. The "Upper San Juan" site in SW Colorado caught our eye. This site is actually Wolf Creek Pass on US Highway 160 NE of Pagosa Springs. It actually is the very tippy top of the San Juan River headwaters. River runners get giddy & goofy when Wolf Creek has a lot of snow--it's means "The Juan" will be a hot ticket during upcoming runoff. Well, back to the story: This SNOTEL is sitting this morning at 81.7 inches of snow. Yesterday was 87.9. That's considered normal settling in deep snow. The interesting factoid is that the site gained 36.4 inches of snow in five days! That translates to a gain of 7.1 inches of SWE, AKA Snow Water Equivalent. SWE is the real water that's hiding in the snow.

We had a question recently on how to find this data yourself. It's pretty easy. Click on the top link at left--the one for SNOTEL Sites. On the right side of the new page you will see a link Snow Depth called "Products." When you click there, you can get a text summary of the snowdepth at all sites within any given state. After you find a particular site of interest, return to the main SNOTEL page, click that state, choose the site that caught your attention and then click on "7 Day Snow Depth" by either hour or day. It's really quite simple once you get the hang of it.

One other cool thing you can do is find the SNOTEL site on a satellite, terrain or highway map using Google Maps. Each SNOTEL site has long-lats. Plug them into the Google maps search field and, viola, there you have it! Click the example below for a larger version.

Silverton stuffed!

2008-12-27T16:40:00.002-07:00

This story was posted late 27DEC by United Press International:

SILVERTON, Colo., Dec. 27 (UPI) -- This week's winter storm that brought blizzards to the U.S. mountain West dumped 4 feet of snow on high-altitude Silverton, Colo., officials said.

The small town high in the San Juan Mountains took the brunt of the Christmas Day storm as ferocious winds whipped the snow into 8-foot drifts, The Denver Post reported Saturday.

"They got the brunt of it," National Weather Service meteorologist Bryon Lawrence told the newspaper.

The storm closed Molas, Coal Bank and Red Mountain passes, boxing Silverton in and closing the town's two ski areas. But officials said the resorts would likely reopen as soon as the roads were plowed, with the Silverton Mountain Ski Area expected to boast a record-breaking 200 inches of snow -- or 16.6 feet, the Post said.

"The roads being closed has been challenging," ski area spokeswoman Jen Brill told the Rocky Mountain News. "But I never will say that there's any such thing as too much snow. You won't hear that out of my mouth."

There's a lengthier version of this story here in the Denver Post.

Batter Up!

2008-12-27T10:32:00.004-07:00

Well, let's take a break from all the action here in the Lower 48 and take a trip to the Russian outback. I've tinkered with some graphics here to show you the totally weirdo jetstream coupled with an equally weirdo wad of water vapor. This is a very unusual pattern, folks. I'm not sure how this one will play out as I can't recall ever seeing such a strange pattern before. It looks unusually wet, quite large and possibly ready to set up a very cold snowy pipeline out of Alaska. Weird things like this often change as quickly as they appear so I won't worry too much about it right now. It's kind of like having a rattlesnake along your far back fence. As long as the snake stays out there, no one's too worried. It's only when the snake comes onto your patio that you call Pa-Pa for the shotgun. If there was ever a coiled snake pattern sitting out along the back fence of the Russian regions of Siberian--this is it!

Upper Snake smiling

2008-12-27T07:00:00.007-07:00

If a watershed could smile, we suspect the Upper Snake is smiling today. The Camp Springs, Maryland, weather wonks have this to say: "3-DAY SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 FEET ARE PROJECTED ACROSS THE CASCADES OF WASHINGTON...MOST OF NORTHERN IDAHO...EXTREME NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE TETONS..." Pocatello NWS 2 pn 27DEC AFD says "SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS POURING INTO THE REGION." The QPF graphs shows a direct hit on Y-stone and the Tetons. This is real good news for Tater Nation as the NRCS says the Upper Snake only needs a 90% snowpack to have adequate irrigation for the 2009 growing season. If the latest forecast comes true, Tater Nation's ruler King Tot will throw a New Year's party!

Meanwhile, check the 27DEC warning mosaic in the Midwest. It's hard to remember a weirder grouping of warnings all bunched together. You've got a tornado watch, a flash flood warning, an ice storm warning and even a red flag warning way down south. What an eclectic mix of watches and warnings!

Meanwhile, parts of the PAC NW coast are indeed getting some decent rainfall. NW Oregon is under a flood warning so we will probably have some media coverage of the results here pretty soon. Stay tuned.

Polar Crown Prominence

2008-12-26T08:49:00.003-07:00

Here's a real "dousey," as Ned Ryerson would say in Ground Hog Day. If you go to Spaceweather, you can read all about it. Meanwhile, I figured I'd post it here because it's so danged beautiful and mysterious and even a wee bit Gothic.

When it rains it pours

2008-12-26T08:42:00.011-07:00

Above is the precip prediction mosaic for the lower 48. Pretty danged impressive precip figures progged out on the coast and up in the Idaho Panhandle. If these figs come to pass, somebody, someplace is somehow gonna be in a world o' hurt! (NOTE: We liked this graphic so much we found its source and made it a permanent part of our links at left.) When these big Pacific storms roll ashore and dumpall their water on the windward side of the Cascade Range, it always reminds me of a huge bomber hugging the deck and speeding toward its destructive destiny. These types of storms are so awesome and magnificent. I try to imagine the sheer weight of the water in the sky. All weather is wonderful but winter weather is even more so!